To the surprise of absolutely no one, David Letterman is electing to remain at CBS under a "5-year contract." I put that in quotes because, if the reports are to be believed, he will have — commencing in 2004 — the annual right to quit. (For more details, consult my pal Aaron Barnhart's article by clicking here.) I suspect that particular clause will be significant in the future; not that Dave will exercise it before the term is up but that, as with Carson's last decade or two, we'll hear many a rumor of impending early retirement. Actually, we heard them aplenty when Dave didn't have that out.
I mentioned earlier that this Late Night War struck me as even dumber than the last Late Night War, and it still does. This one was utterly needless and it may actually lead to some casualties. Despite the hype and attendant TV-movie, the squabble over who'd get Johnny's job was a "war" that yielded no real bloodshed, no real losers. When the dust settled, Letterman and Leno each wound up with the best job either has ever had or will ever have. Today, they have two of the more secure positions in all of show business.
The brouhaha just concluded, however, will probably result in someone going down and I don't mean Ted Koppel. He was slapped and slapped hard by whoever leaked the story that ABC was willing to dump him for Letterman. (The reporter who broke the story — Bill Carter of The New York Times — has said it didn't come from Dave's people. I'd be very surprised if there's ten people in all of show business who believe it came from anywhere else.)
Still, unless the folks at Disney are uncommonly lucky or reckless, it'll be a while before they find something with which they can replace Nightline. With the entire press corps eager to condemn the replacement of news with entertainment, ABC won't be able to put a new show in its stead unless they come up with something absolutely sure-fire and with some amount of prestige. There are probably some there who are now arguing it isn't worth the risk for anything besides a proven commodity…and, with Dave and Conan under new contracts and Jay not about to budge, there are none. So Ted's secure for now and, when it's time for him to pass from the 11:35 slot, they'll pay dearly for him to go quietly.
Bill Maher will probably also not be a casualty of the latest "war." Apparently, his days at ABC were numbered some time ago and he was already entertaining other, better offers. The rumor mill says that HBO has the inside track but even if he doesn't go there, he'll land somewhere — and on his feet. ABC is probably now looking for a one-hour entertainment show to go into Maher's position, with the distant hope that it might develop into enough of a hit to eventually move to 11:35. The future of Politically Incorrect on ABC will hinge on how soon they find something promising…but even if they want to keep Maher, he may elect to flee to a more compatible venue.
My prediction, for what it's worth, is that the real casualty of the Letterman renegotiation will be The Late Late Show With Craig Kilborn. If Dave is looking at retirement in 2-5 years, it's not too soon to begin grooming his replacement. What better way to do that than to find someone who, in the interim, can boost his ratings a tad the way Conan helps Jay's? Perhaps Jon Stewart will finally get the job that he should have gotten back when Letterman's company had him under contract…and left him on the bench.