I know some of you think I'm writing too much about the election and about Trump but my blog is about whatever's on my mind and what's there now is the Electoral College.
Right now, every major pollster has Hillary Clinton with what would seem to be an insurmountable lead in the following states: New York, California, Vermont, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Washington, Hawaii, Virginia, Rhode Island, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Oregon, Maine, Delaware, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Connecticut, plus the District of Columbia. In most, she's up around ten points.
Those states total 258 electoral votes…so she's twelve shy of the 270 it takes to win.
Now, you hear a lot about Ohio (18 electoral votes) and Florida (29) and even North Carolina (15) and how Trump needs those states to have even a chance of winning. He does…but the point is that Hillary doesn't. She can get the twelve votes by winning Minnesota (10) and any one other state or just by winning Georgia (16). She can get it by winning Iowa (6) and Nevada (6). She can get it by winning Arizona (11) and any one other state. There are many routes.
At the moment, she's either ahead or neck-and-neck in all of these plus a few others. She probably already has Minnesota but there haven't been many polls there so you can't really award her the state…yet. The latest Monmouth Poll — that's one of the better pollsters — has her up nine in Florida…so there's more than double your twelve votes right there.
Trump is solid in seventeen states that will give him 139 so he's 131 short of the 270. There are thirteen "toss-up" states where neither is far enough ahead to claim a near-lock and those have 141 electoral votes. So Trump would need to win almost all of them or maybe flip a few states where Hillary has a solid lead.
As Nate Silver notes, Trump seems to be about to ratchet up the nastiness and accusations. That's the approach that got him where he is today — on the verge of being on the wrong end of a landslide. Still, my thinking is that Trump has no other choice.
If he suddenly starts acting statesmanlike and polite, it's not going to change the minds of anyone who already decided he was unfit. They remember…and in case they forget, there's loads of video around for the Hillary people to replay. Undecideds won't believe there's a new Trump…and of course, there's the very real question of whether he is actually capable of performing any other act. All he'd do probably is disappoint his base and cause less of them to turn out on Election Day.
Seems to me Trump's only hope is to sell hard the "Crooked Hillary" theme and hope something emerges that has a lot more substance than any of the allegations hurled so far. Even then, I think a lot of people would opt for Crooked Hillary over Crazy Donald.