Geoff Cameron writes to ask a question a lot of people are asking me…
Thank you for all your insights on the NBC late night situation but you haven't included the thing I most wanted to read, which is what would you do? If the network hired you to solve it, what would you do as the best solution?
I'd have an hour show on at 11:35 every evening in that slot. It would be called The Tonight Show. And then I'd pick one guy to host it and I'd stick with him for a long time, longer than seven months. Conan's show has been underperforming and I don't think it's just because of his lead-in. Still, he's right that they're giving up a little too quickly on him. In any case, I'd have an hour Tonight Show at 11:35 and then I'd have an hour of Late Night at 12:35.
I don't think I'd keep Jimmy Fallon on the latter. He's had over ten months and while there's something very likeable about the guy, I don't like his show and I don't see that America does, either. I wouldn't rush to replace him but I think I'd keep an eye out for someone who might fare better in that slot.
As for The Tonight Show, I'd pick Leno or O'Brien, commit to that person and stick with them for a while. You can't really set a fixed period because if a show plunges in ratings and becomes unprofitable, you may need to dump it sooner as opposed to later. But I'd commit to sticking with one or the other for at least the next year, providing the ratings didn't slip below some specified doomsday number. And then I'd try to make a deal to keep the other guy somewhere in "the NBC family" but I'd be prepared for him to walk and go elsewhere.
So which one would I pick, Jay or Conan? Tell you the truth, I haven't been all that impressed with either one for the last year or two. I liked them both a lot at one point but that point was in the past. Conan, I think, is trying way too hard to be the life of the party to the point of not letting anyone else on the premises be funny. (One encouraging move in the right direction is that they now have Andy Richter on the couch.) Jay, I think, is way too reliant on guest correspondents — not one of whom has caught on — and is too eager to finish the show, jump on a plane and go to Vegas and do his act at the Mirage. Both I think are relying too much on routines that have been done too many times.
I also think both shows (and Letterman's and what I've seen of Fallon's and Kimmel's) suffer from what I always think is wrong with talk shows, which is the general lack of spontaneity. Craig Ferguson has a little more than the others but he also doesn't do a lot more than mime to records and sit around and talk with guests. Every one of the other shows operates on the premise that there must never be a moment where the host doesn't know exactly what's going to happen next and he usually has to have a prepared line, whether he chooses to use it or not. He must know pretty much what each guest is going to say. If there's a demonstration, like if they're going to cook something, it has to be rehearsed. If anyone is going to go into a situation where the unpredictable could happen (say, to an event outside the studio), then you write as much of the segment in advance as is possible and you tape it in advance so you can edit it down to the required slickness. I think all these hosts are capable of handling situations where the unexpected can happen. They just don't do it very often.
One of the appeals of Johnny Carson was that he wasn't afraid to be on the spot. Some of the alleged spontaneity on his show was, of course, a sham. The guests were pre-interviewed and there was some loose rehearsal if Johnny did a bit away from the desk…but there was more presumption that the host could wing it and be funny…and if he fell on his ass, fine. That would be funny, too. We need more of that.
Picking one or the other, Jay or Conan, is a tough call. What I'd do is go to Jay and offer him a deal that would give him back The Tonight Show for at least two years (assuming a minimum rating) on the following conditions: He has to give up all or most stand-up gigs outside of Los Angeles. Instead, he should spend that time honing the monologues and taping his own damn remote segments instead of sending Ross the Intern or someone else we didn't tune in to watch. He has to dump segments like the Photo Booth, which he's not in, and some he is in like when they go to the Oakwood Apartments and talk residents into dressing up funny. Mr. Carson had a good instinct for when a bit was getting laughs from the studio audience but had worn out its welcome with the folks at home…and all of today's late night shows need to cultivate that.
So I'd offer Jay that deal and if he didn't agree, I'd go offer it to Conan. And like I said, I'd try to keep the other guy with the network in some capacity but I'd be prepared for him to go elsewhere. If it comes down to Leno on NBC at 11:30 and O'Brien on Fox at 11, I'd wager on Jay, especially if he doesn't come back and do the exact same show he was doing before.
No, it's not a perfect solution to the problem…and NBC isn't going to come up with one, either. It's a problem that shouldn't have happened. Someone (they say it's Jeff Zucker) had the idea a few years ago that by 2009, America would be tired of Leno and ready to welcome Conan onto The Tonight Show. Ergo, they could offer Tonight to Conan to keep him from going to another network then.
It didn't play out that way. As the date for the handoff drew nearer, it became obvious that Jay was, if anything, going up in the ratings and Conan was going down. So that was a bad call…one that Zucker may have made because he figured it would preserve the old late night configuration a few more years and that he'd be gone by the time it could possibly backfire. Well, he's still there (as of today, at least) and it's backfired…and by trying to keep both guys, they made things worse. They should cut their losses and give The Tonight Show to the person they think should host The Tonight Show instead of trying to divide the baby and give one guy the start time and the other guy, the name of the series.
That's what I'd do. And you know? It's fun to say things like this when you're not on the hot seat, no money is riding on your decision and you really can't ever be proven wrong. Let's see what the folks at NBC (who don't have that luxury) decide.