Depending on which poll you consult, the Harris/Walz ticket is 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 or 0% points ahead of Trump/Vance. The 538 aggregate at this moment says 2.3 and the Ipsos poll says…
Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 42% to 37% in the race for the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, according to an Ipsos poll published on Thursday. The poll found Harris had widened her lead since a July 22-23 Reuters/Ipsos survey, which found her up 37% to 34% over Trump.
Ipsos conducted the August poll independently from Reuters. The poll, conducted online, had a margin of error of around 3 percentage points. In a separate poll, Ipsos found Harris leading Trump 42% to 40% in the seven states where the election was closest in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
That's all well and good and certainly a lot better than being behind…but we're looking at — and I quote from above — "a margin of error of around 3 percentage points." I'm also leery of any poll conducted online so my optimism remains under guard. "Kamala comes out of nowhere and springs into the lead" is such a good news story right this minute that I can't blame the press for running with it.
But there will come a time when "Trump gaining" will be a good way to attract clicks and tune-ins and there will certainly be some polls somewhere you could cite to write that story. I'm waiting for more data. Oh, and Randy Rainbow has a new video dropping on Monday. I'm waiting for that, too.