My old pal Pat O'Neill sent me this the day after this year's Tony nominations were announced…
The Tony nominations were announced yesterday and the ceremony is scheduled for June 11, to be broadcast by CBS. If the WGA strike is still going on that date (as most seem to be predicting), I assume there will be pickets outside the theater.
This leads to a question: Most of the actors who will be on stage for this show are not only members of Actors Equity, but of SAG-AFTRA. The latter has announced it is supporting the WGA and will honor its picket lines. (For that matter, so has IATSE, representing the technical people who would be involved in the broadcast.) So, what's the likelihood that the Tony presentation broadcast will be canceled or postponed? It's an important question for the theater community, because the Tony broadcast is a big "commercial" for Broadway.
Well, first of all, I question that "most" are predicting the strike will last that long. Writers Guild strikes do tend to last long but a settlement in the near future is not impossible. In truth, no one knows. In the past, they've lasted a long time for two reasons, one being that the producers sometimes have a hard time agreeing among themselves about a new offer.
Secondly, Writers Guild negotiations tend to be the battleground for issues that may eventually lead to increases or rollbacks for some or all of the other Hollywood unions. This is one thing it helps to keep in mind to understand Hollywood strikes. To you, it may look like it's an intermittent battle between The Producers and The Writers Guild. But from the viewpoint of the AMPTP, it's one long never-ending series of battles between them and 58 (that's right — I said FIFTY-EIGHT) guilds and unions. What they give us or take back from us impacts what happens with the other labor organizations.
It's like if you have a big family and you give one kid a bicycle, you're probably on the hook for more bicycles. It's called Pattern Bargaining and they can sometimes manipulate things to their advantage but it can also sometimes work against them.
In past strikes, we did not have the unusual timing of this one. The Directors Guild is commencing negotiations on its new contract tomorrow and the actors begin formal contract negotiations on June 7. I'm not saying this will cause the WGA strike to end sooner or later; merely that you can't look at past years and figure out how that will impact any of the bargaining for any of these guilds.
In the past, there was almost zero chance of all three being on strike at the same time. It's still unlikely but it's not impossible. The current DGA and SAG-AFTRA contracts both expire on June 30. The AMPTP may feel the need to get our deal wrapped-up before dealing with possible strikes from those guilds. Note my use of the word "may." Nothing is certain.
Also, past Writers Guild strikes were at a time when the broadcast networks were frantic to get things settled so as not to disrupt their Fall Seasons. Nowadays, the Fall Season isn't a major "thing" at those networks and those networks are not driving the AMPTP bus the way they used to. So we're really in uncharted territory.
So…as for how the work stoppage may affect The Tonys, this is one of my biggest "I dunno" answers. I dunno…and it's not just about The Tonys. There are a lot of shows that have to decide what they're going to do. And if there is a picket line outside whatever theater will be the location for the Tony Awards telecast, it may be up to individuals to make a difficult choice. Maybe the show will be postponed.
The DGA and SAG-AFTRA can't strike until their contracts expire at the end of that month but a general labor unrest could start well before then. Might it make a difference? It might…but I have no friggin' idea how. No friggin' idea.
