I was going to take a stab at some Oscar predictions here but decided against it. I haven't seen any of the nominated films — not a one — and figured that might work against me. However, I can predict this: The ceremony will be very long and everyone will bitch about that and call it "The worst Oscarcast Ever." The ceremony is always very long and everyone always bitches about it and calls it "The Worst Oscar Ever." Until the following one. It's about the only thing you can bank on. What's more, they often act like the thing is supposed to be short and it only ran long because someone screwed up.
In point of fact, the producers of the telecast know pretty much exactly how long the show's going to run and it's fine with them. It's especially fine with the folks at ABC, who sell a lot of very expensive commercial time for the broadcast and would have to sell less if the show wrapped up in less time.
We can also predict that there will be a number of references — not necessarily "on topic" — to 9/11 but that Whoopi will say something that someone will strain hard to interpret as unpatriotic. (I find it interesting that, this week, a lot of ultra-conservatives are extremely critical of President Bush for saying he'll sign the Campaign Finance Reform bill, and also for what he may do with that immigration plan. These are the same people who charge treason when Bush is criticized by anyone for anything else.) I suppose there'll be Cheney heart attack jokes and something about Liza's wedding and — who knows? — there may even be some mention of Gary Condit. Nathan Lane is among the presenters and that might afford a dandy place for a line about how Max Bialystock got out of the play-producing business and launched Enron.
We can further predict that some actress will wear an outfit that is so outrageous — in concept or exposure — that everyone will be talking about it for weeks after. One of the great crimes against humanity is to not be properly dressed for the Academy Awards.
And we can just about wager the farm that the reviews tomorrow will say, "Worst Oscar Show ever" and fault its producers for factors beyond their control, like who won and whether they gave memorable acceptance speeches. It will remain "Worst Oscar Show ever" until the next one, whereupon they'll long for the memorable, classy moments of this year's ceremony. Enjoy the festivities.