I see all this polling online about the Iowa Caucuses, which are less than a month away. Bernie's up. Bernie's down. Joe's got a lock on it. Joe can't win. Bloomberg's spending like crazy. Have we forgotten that this is not the election? Yeah, the winner sometimes does go on to get his or her party's nomination. Last time out, Hillary did. But the winner in Iowa on the Republican side was Ted Cruz, who didn't come close to his party's nod. The election before that, Rick Santorum won and the time before that, it was Mike Huckabee.
I think we're giving this way too much importance. Today, the polls are within the margin of error for a four-way tie between Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Biden. I dunno who'll win. I don't even know who'll be in the lead this time next week. But it does suggest to me that whoever loses won't lose by enough to count them out of the race.
Which reminds me: In 1992, Tom Harkin got 76% and that didn't give him any sort of lock on the nomination. Bill Clinton, who later got it, finished in fourth place with 3%. Why do we care so much about this ritual?