This whole matter with the Ukrainian call is the kind of thing I'm talking about when I say it's a waste of time to fret about whether Elizabeth Warren is ahead of Joe Biden with married women over the age of 39 in southern Wisconsin or any of those details. The election is about one thing: The misbehavior of Trump. And before we get to Election Day, there'll be fifty more scandals like the present one…fifty more outrages that no one can predict.
Every week-to-ten-days, we'll awake to some new bombshell, previously unforeseen, that Trump has done something that his opponents say is illegal, immoral or just plain stupid…and his backers say is fine, it's fake news, it's somebody else's fault, it's legal and if it isn't legal, so what? My suspicion is that the latter group will diminish over time but even if it doesn't, none of us will ever know what we'll be arguing about week after next. My prediction, for what it's worth, is totally unpredictability except for one thing: Trump's support will never go up by any significant amount.
Remember how in the last presidential election, there was a week or two when some people were genuinely concerned that Carly Fiorina was going to be the nominee? A few months…even weeks later, it felt ridiculous to ever have considered that as a possibility. I think from now 'til the day we vote, we'll feel that way about everything that happened eight weeks earlier. I'm still not convinced that either Biden or Trump will be on the final ballot.