So where are we now with the Leno/O'Brien situation? If you believe what's being leaked — and there's a pretty big "if" in that phrase — the hitch is that Conan O'Brien is balking at the pushback to 12:05. There are suggestions out there that Fox may offer him a show at 11 PM and that he'd take it before he'd let NBC move him to the midnight hour.
The trouble with parsing all this leakage is that we don't, for example, know exactly what's in the various contracts. Some sources are saying that Conan's deal with NBC pays him a huge sum of money if he doesn't get at least a full two-year tour of duty on The Tonight Show, but that the network can move him and the show by that name to 12:05 without triggering that penalty. Is this so? The amount quoted seems to vary from report to report. It's always huge but the fact that no one seems to know precisely how much it is makes me wonder what else these sources don't know. That would be a major factor in what's going to happen but we don't know if that contractual provision exists or if so, if there are loopholes or outs in it.
On the Conan side, I'm going to guess that staying at 11:35 at NBC no longer seems possible so they're looking at securing the next-best situation. They'll talk to Fox and other suitors…but Fox would have to put down a huge amount of money and a long-term on-air commitment to make that happen. Would they make such an offer to a guy who, when you look at the numbers, isn't doing all that well at 11:35?
Hard to say. Networks can be funny about taking away shows or stars from each other. Sometimes, it can look like a coup to steal away a competitor's asset. Other times, it looks like you're so unable to generate your own hits that you're grabbing for someone else's discards. And you have to remember that what works one place may not work in another. Fox got burned pretty badly by the assumption that Joan Rivers at 11 PM would get at least the same ratings she was getting at 11:35 when she filled in for Johnny Carson on The Tonight Show. She didn't. Not even close.
Then you had The Chevy Chase Show in the same time slot. That one was such a disaster that they probably don't want to rush into putting another such program on there; not without a lot of research and consideration. They might like the idea of Conan but this is looking like a deal that has to be made in the next week or so…or not at all. O'Brien's numbers for NBC haven't been bad with the kind of demographic group that Fox covets, but they probably don't justify the kind of sudden offer that would make him jump. If I had to bet, I'd bet that all this talk of Conan heading to Fox is being exaggerated by a media that likes to ratchet up the drama in a story like this.
In the meantime over at CBS, David Letterman and Craig Ferguson are "very close" to being signed to stay put "deep into 2012." Letterman started his late night career with an NBC show that debuted in February of 1982 and ran until June of 1993. Then he was off the air for two months before he started his current CBS show. If he were to retire in April of 2012 — these are approximate dates — he would have logged thirty years total in late night TV. Is the plan something like that, to come out with a round number that approximates Mr. Carson's record?
Probably not, and it's probably too soon to think about that. One thing for certain: Whenever Dave does his last show, it'll come in a network ratings "sweeps" period. No one knows yet when that will occur in 2012, just as Dave probably doesn't know now how he'll feel then about retirement. At the moment, for us viewers, it's just nice to have some stability in the daypart.