Nate Silver obviously found out that I sent off my vote-by-mail ballot yesterday because he's ready to declare that Hillary Clinton has all but cinched the election. I wasn't going to claim sole credit for that but the timing is a little hard to overlook.
Worth quoting is when he says…
Clinton's win will have come by rather conventional means. Her big surges in the polls came following the conventions and the debates. She got the largest convention bounce of any candidate since at least 2000, and she won the debates by a clearer margin than any previous candidate in the six elections in which there were three debates that CNN polled.
Of course, this overlooks the release of the notorious Billy Bush tape which not only made Trump look like a sexist pig but also unleashed (because it made credible) a series of accusations by women…and I see the series continues with another one today. I'm curious to see how much of Hillary's victory the analysts say can be attributed to that. She was ahead before it came out but did it make a difference of one point? Two? Three?