As predicted here, Conan O'Brien will not be leaving NBC. He'll stay right where he is but for a lot more money. The brief flurry of reports that he might be heading to Fox most likely represented a hankering on the part of a few entertainment reporters for another "late night war." One is not likely. Mssrs. Leno and Letterman have carved out secure little homes for themselves. Odds are, both men can do those shows until they die or choose voluntary retirement. If there is any big change in the ratings, it's unlikely to be because of anything Dave or Jay do. Rather, it will be because of some huge, unlikely change in the respective fortunes of CBS and NBC…or, only slightly more likely, some formidable new entrant into the time slot.
I frankly think both Dave and Jay are vulnerable to a challenge. Both have gotten a bit predictable, relying on goofy stunts…especially those that rely on the inherent clumsiness of non-professionals — stagehands and people on the street — when put on camera. Jay and Dave are both good at winging it, but both seem to be configuring their shows to minimize any chance that they might have to prove this. If someone came along with a truly unpredictable late night show — the way Steve Allen's was in the early sixties, f'rinstance, eliminating pre-tapes and putting the star occasionally on the spot — they might have a shot at grabbing a slice of the 11:35 pie. That no one probably will is because there doesn't seem to be a host on the horizon who's capable of presiding over such a show. If one ever emerges, watch out.