How will the Republican contest for the presidential nomination end? Norm Ornstein lists what seem to be all the possibilities — though I can't help think something will happen which no one could have anticipated.
Here's a point of genuine suspense for me: The Republican Convention convenes in Cleveland on Monday, July 18. If everything were to go according to the usual schedule, they would be nominating their presidential and vice-presidential candidates and doing the big acceptance speeches on Thursday, July 21. But nothing in this election has gone according to custom and we may be talking about major floor fights over rules and multiple ballots and some people are even talking about the possibility (which I think is unlikely) of new candidates entering the fray.
I don't care about acceptance speeches and rallying. I can watch them later on my TiVo or YouTube if I watch them at all. But if there's going to be unscripted stuff happening, I wanna watch it live, preferably with a good Internet connection so I can read what everyone is saying and Tweeting. Problem: Comic-Con International starts on Thursday, July 21 and I always go down the day before so I can be there for the Wednesday Preview Night. It's hard to imagine that all the interesting stuff will be over before, say, 11 AM on Wednesday when I would usually start heading South. To me, the three most likely scenarios are, in no particular order…
- Trump locks up the 1,237 delegates he needs to win on June 8.
- Trump doesn't get them then but rounds up enough uncommitted delegates before Cleveland.
- Trump loses on the first ballot and Cruz wins on the second.
I don't believe there will be a Paul Ryan movement; not unless there a lot of credible polls before then that shows Ryan would easily trounce the Democratic nominee…and I'm pretty sure there won't be. I don't believe Trump and Cruz will form a coalition ticket…though I would love to see the two of them mud-wrestle over who'd be at the top of it.
Of the remaining three: If Trump locks it up before the convention, the convention will be one big Donald Infomercial so it'll be of little interest, except maybe to stare with the "Springtime for Hitler" look at any Sarah Palin speech plus whatever Donald says. The other two options suggest lots of floor fights over rules. It's easy to imagine the #StopTrump forces challenging his claims over uncommitted delegates or fighting to not release the ones pledged to Rubio and other fallen candidates. That could all make for a lot of drama and a long convention. You may just hear me yelling at my TV, "Will you people hurry up and get this thing settled? I have to get to Comic-Con!"