One of the interesting things to observe on the political scene is how utterly lost so many of the pundits are. Predictions are usually based on precedents and saying things like, "No candidate has ever scored more than 23.5% in the Iowa Caucus unless he or she ate fried chicken and hush puppies at Granny's Home Cooking in West Corning before the election." Ah, but in a World of Trump, so many things have occurred that defy precedents that we're all in uncharted territory. That's why you keep reading or hearing folks saying, "Trump's lead will surely plunge by December 1" — and then it doesn't plunge.
I still think Trump's lead will wither once we get to the point of actual human beings casting actual votes for him. I think he'll underperform in Iowa and maybe New Hampshire and that'll ruin his whole "I'm inevitable" act. But I have to admit I don't have a whole lot of confidence in anyone's predictions, including mine. The one thing I'm pretty sure of is that many things have yet to happen that will turn this election inside-out, upside-down and in new directions no one can foresee. (I do however refuse to believe Trump has a real chance until Nate Silver says he does and he doesn't…yet.)
Another interesting (and I don't mean that in a good way) thing that is happening with this contest is that a lot of heretofore-hidden racism and religious bigotry are bubbling to the surface. The ascent of Obama caused me to be surprised at a lot of acquaintances suddenly saying — in carefully-coded ways — that it was just wrong for a non-white guy to be president, especially since he obviously wasn't Christian no matter what he said. I don't believe that everyone who supports Trump is like that but he's sure convinced me there are a lot more of them out there than I thought. And that I didn't know certain people I thought I knew as well as I thought I knew them.