Lots of Democrats and Republicans are agonizing over Donald Trump's current lead in the polls. A lot of each don't want him to be the Republican nominee and for conflicting reasons. It also bothers some of both that the Old Rules don't seem to apply to this guy. He says and does things that would doom anyone else's candidacy and he still creeps upwards in the polls.
The latest example of that: Trump always brags about his deep commitment to The Bible. He even goes so far as to say that it's even a better book than his own Art of the Deal. But asked to name his favorite passage, he came up empty. He couldn't even say if he preferred the Old Testament or the New Testament. With any other candidate, that would be a deal-killer for a lot of folks who aren't fleeing from Trump because of it but who can shrug or call it a "gotcha" question and continue to support him.
I would like to suggest one reason for his popularity. I've seen a hundred offered but if someone has suggested it's as simple as I'm about to, I've missed it. It's that he looks like a winner and the people running against him do not.
I mean, come on. President Bobby Jindal? President Ben Carson? President Rand Paul? Are you kidding? Even President Jeb Bush is starting to look like a joke.
I really think it may be that simple. If you are a Republican, you probably have a whole list of things that you want to see the next president do. Trump's stated positions — and he hasn't stated all that many — may or may not promise you all of yours. (Last we heard, he wants to ban assault rifles and not close down Planned Parenthood, though I would expect both of those to change.)
But we are now so polarized in this country along partisan lines that you probably figure that with any Republican in the White House, you'll get at least some of what you want and with any Democrat, you'll get zero. In fact, the Democrat will probably do the exact opposite of many things on your wish list. Even the worst Republican will probably not make those matters any worse. He might not repeal Obamacare but at least he won't expand it.
So I think the reason Trump is doing so well is that at this point, he looks more like a winner than any other option. And it won't do Chris Christie or Mike Huckabee a bit of good to try to top him with anti-abortion or anti-immigrant rhetoric because neither of those guys looks like they have a prayer of winning.
So yeah, Trump was a Democrat not so long ago and he was pro-life and he doesn't conform to the list of positions that every Republican candidate has had to assert or risk a dequalification. So what? He might just be the only one who can beat Hillary.
This can all change and I'm sure it will. It's a long time until the election and Hillary could grow or shrink in strength. She might not get the nomination at all. (Eight years ago at this time, she seemed inevitable.) Other Republicans could still emerge or John Kasich could suddenly get a transfusion of charisma or it could come out that Trump has personally performed late-term abortions…or something. I still don't think The Donald is going to be The Nominee.
But I think what will do him in is when he starts to look like a Loser. Because when he starts to look like one, he will become one.