Pundits are assuming that the next G.O.P. nominee for president will be someone from this list: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Mike Pence, Rick Perry, Rob Portman, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum or Scott Walker. The current CNN/ORC polling, which is close to meaningless about 2016 but perhaps of some significance now, puts Bush at the top of the pile with 23%, followed by Christie with 13% and Carson at 7%. That's among self-identified Republicans plus Independents who lean Republican. (You can read a PDF of the full results here.)
If I were on that list, I'd be humiliated to be polling below Ben Carson who has no experience and nothing to offer besides nutcase theories about Democrats being evil and on the Soviet payroll. Huckabee, Paul, Rubio, Ryan, Cruz and the rest of them are below Carson.
Cruz, Jindal, Perry and five others poll below "Someone Else," which is a slightly nicer way of saying "None of these guys." When you see reporters talk about some of them as serious candidates for '16, remember that they're polling 6% or below in their own party. Santorum is getting a lot of press lately for a guy who's at 2% in a poll with a three-point margin of error.
I'm not sure why Mitt Romney is not on the list but I imagine if he were, he'd be either the #1 or #2 pick, mostly due to name recognition, and he'd knock guys like Santorum or Kasich down to negative numbers, which is almost where Pence and Portman already are.
But here's the question in the poll that interests me…
If you had to choose, would you rather see the Republican party nominate a presidential candidate who agrees with you on every issue that matters to you but may not be able to beat the Democratic candidate, or a presidential candidate who can beat the Democratic candidate but does not agree with you on every issue that matters to you?
At the moment, the number who'd choose to lose with someone who's with them on every issue is about 29%. I guess the premise there is that if they keep nominating ideologically-pure Republicans, eventually one of them has to win. I would also guess that once there is a real Democratic nominee these folks can loathe by name, that number will decline a tad.
Then again, the respondents are probably assuming they already know the name of the dread enemy. The current list of possible Democratic nominees seems to have but one name on it and that name is Clinton — the name people who hate Obama hate almost as much as they hate Obama. (And yes, there's been talk of Elizabeth Warren or even Bernie Sanders running and I suppose some folks still think Joe Biden may be hovering. I can't imagine anyone who despises Hillary despising those three choices any less.)
On the other hand, around 70% of Republicans and Independents in this poll said they'd rather vote for a Republican who can win. That might be enough of a margin to drag the rest along.
So here's what I'm thinking: I keep hearing Jeb Bush can't be the nominee because he is not anti-immigration, he supports Common Core, he has some shady personal financial history, he was involved with a company that profited from Obamacare, he has never signed the "Never Raise Taxes" pledge, he increased government spending in his state…and oh, yeah. He's named Bush. A lot of Republicans don't want to defend or even see mention of the last Bush's stint in the Oval Office. You can keep George W. hidden in 2016 but not if you nominate his brother.
And my thought is that if none of that stuff is disqualifying to the 70%, maybe it doesn't matter, except that the 29% is going to be real, real angry when most of them vote for him. Which is why a year from now, I'll bet the list of Republicans who might get the nomination is missing half the names that are presently on it and contains at least six who aren't. And if Jeb isn't on it, it won't be because of the above reasons. I can sure imagine him as the ultimate viable candidate, especially if he can get Florida. No Republican can win the presidency in 2016 without Florida.