Well, it's official: For the first time since I got my first TiVo in 1999, I have no season passes for any late night shows. I gave up on Fallon last week and just canceled my pass for Seth Meyers. The Late Night Wars have finally claimed a casualty in my house: My interest in watching late night shows, at least on a regular basis. Henceforth, I intend to scan the guest lists and record episodes on an individual basis.
Technology has changed the game a lot. Once upon a time, I watched the late night shows — Johnny's, especially — because there was always the chance of missing something wonderful. Too many times, I'd miss Johnny and the next day, someone would say, "Did you see what happened on Carson last night?" If you hadn't, you were probably outta luck. The show might be rerun but not for a long time. (At one point, Johnny's reruns were a year old…and they never repeated shows with guest hosts.)
Today with DVRs, we usually don't miss our favorite shows in the first place, reruns are more current, and anything wonderful can be found on the 'net the next day. That's why I have no hesitation to not record some of these shows anymore. If it's great, it'll be more easily found and watched on YouTube. At times, the initial broadcast almost feels like an effort to generate YouTube videos.
The ratings haven't settled down to any sort of long-term "norm" yet. Fallon is kicking it but a bit less with each passing show. There are more or less two separate races here — the contest for the most total viewers and the contest for the 18-49 bracket. At the moment, Fallon's leading handily in both. Letterman's in second place with total viewers. Kimmel's in second place with 18-49. It wouldn't surprise anyone if that's the way it goes for a long time, though with narrower margins.
You have to wonder how Letterman feels about all this. So far, there's no indication that Leno viewers — older ones who may feel distanced from Fallon's guests and references — are taking sanctuary in Dave's show. They seem to be sticking with Fallon…or at least, he hasn't immediately lost much of Leno's audience share as Conan O'Brien did. The industry press seems to be covering the battle as one of guys named Jimmy with little notice of that guy over on CBS. Dave's show is not unprofitable and I can imagine that if he wants to stay and do it — even clearly in last place — CBS might be willing to tolerate that for a few years. I can also imagine Les Moonves sitting down with Letterman and saying, "We should start thinking about succession…"
Even though reports say he has a contractual guarantee of replacing Dave, I don't think Craig Ferguson will be an option. He didn't do all that well against Fallon at 12:35. I don't know why anyone would think he'd perform better at 11:35. If I were CBS, I'd send a Brinks Truck to Stephen Colbert's house but I'm sure others will be discussed. And maybe not for another few years.
But let's see. I'd guess four more weeks before we'll be able to say ratings have settled in and Fallon no longer enjoys the advantage of sheer newness plus that Olympian bump. It would not surprise me if he wound up right where Jay was. I think NBC would still be happy if that's the case…and Dave would still be wondering when the call's coming from Moonves.