So…what's up with late night TV? Well, as he heads into his final months on the job, Mr. Leno is way out in front of Mr. Letterman or Mr. Kimmel in the ratings. Given that The Tonight Show will be packed with superstar guests from now 'til Jay's last show on February 6, everyone is more or less assuming that he'll bow out with monster audiences. Mr. Fallon is also doing great — his young adult numbers at 12:35 are topping David Letterman's young adult numbers at 11:35. That has to make the folks at NBC optimistic, though there's no way of telling how Fallon would be doing — and will be doing — without Jay as his lead-in.
I'm still fascinated by the situation Leno is in and eager to see what happens. He's under contract to NBC until some point in September of '14, at which point he's free to relocate. That is, unless he signs a new deal of some sort to keep him at NBC. I can't imagine what they could offer him that he'd want. Prime time specials? A weekly series? That doesn't sound like Leno to me. Neither does collecting a huge paycheck for months for, essentially, not being on television.
He might just decide to do nothing on TV on a regular basis…but they'll be after him. I can't think of anyone in TV history who's ever become a Free Agent with a track record of being #1 in his time slot for most of two decades. At some point, perhaps in March, he'll be contractually able to entertain offers.
Industry watchers I know were mud-wrestling over whether there's a chance one will be for a new late night show either in syndication or at Fox. Some are certain that isn't in the cards; that Jay is too old for anyone to want to invest in setting up a new franchise elsewhere. On the other hand, no one who wants to get into that arena will ever have a chance to sign a guy who's won that time slot as much as Jay has. Let's say you were the top guy at Fox and you dreamed of clearing the 11 PM-Midnight hour on all your stations for a late night show. What name besides Leno could you ever conceivably get who'd cause more of your stations to move their Seinfeld reruns and accept a network show on that choice piece of real estate?
And Arsenio ain't doing so well. How many stations that carry him would rather have a Jay Leno show there?
This may all be moot. Jay may just decide this is the time to complete his transformation into Bob Hope and spend the rest of his career not doing a regular series. And no, I don't think there's any chance of him coming back to The Tonight Show if Fallon crashes and burns. For good or ill, the next few years of NBC late night are in New York under the purview of Lorne Michaels. Friends I know who know Leno have no clue as to what he wants to do with his life. Maybe even he doesn't know 'til he hears some offers.
So, uh, what about Dave? As you may have heard, he and Jay have patched up their friendship to some unknown extent. The other night, Dave had Howard Stern in the guest chair, and Howard railed on about how he's keeping the Jay Leno Hate Campaign going on Dave's behalf and Dave is now undermining him by consorting with The Enemy. Letterman is hard to read, and he had to have expected that Stern was going to bring it up…but he sure didn't look thrilled by the topic. His face looked like he was thinking, "Oh, right! I forgot that when I have Howard on, he always raises some subject I'm uncomfortable talking about." Frankly, if I were Dave Letterman, I'd be embarrassed if America believed that with all my awards and honors and megabucks, I was still miserable about not getting Johnny's old job.
It makes sense that Dave and Jay are talking…and probably not just because Dave wants the ratings heat that will result when, as seems inevitable, Jay guests on his show. (And Dave'll probably never do it but if I were him, I'd go do Jay's show before 2/6/14. There's no way Dave wouldn't be hilarious — i.e., the old Dave — in that situation and a portion of Jay's audience may soon be in the market for something besides Fallon to watch at 11:35.) Dave and Jay shared a lot of history, starting at the Comedy Store at roughly the same time, advancing together, etc. Now, they share a certain amount of future challenges, namely how and when to exit late night TV when your network thinks you're too old. This could be the (re)start of a beautiful friendship.