As Lloyd Grove notes, Jay Leno is getting monster ratings these days, beating Letterman and Kimmel by pretty wide margins. I don't think that's because America is saying goodbye the way everyone tuned into Johnny's final months. For one thing, Johnny seemed to be going away forever, whereas no one expects Jay Leno to disappear from the face of Show Business. Secondly, Johnny's farewell shows felt like farewell shows with all his superstar guests stopping by for a final appearance before the King. Jay's just doing the same programs he'd be doing anyway, with guests who may reappear several times before he leaves in February. I think viewers are just enjoying his show more than the alternatives.
I have heard two rumors, each from multiple sources who didn't necessarily believe them but were passing them on. I don't necessarily believe them and I think that if one is true, the other isn't.
One is that it will soon be announced that Jimmy Fallon's ascension to The Tonight Show will be delayed a few months and that Jay will continue on 'til then. The reason is, of course, that while NBC doesn't feel they can renege on the hand-off and leave Jay in place indefinitely, they feel they can prolong those great ratings of his a little longer. Moreover, Jay and many key members of his staff are under contract until September and will be paid 'til then whether they do the show or not…so why not have them do the show a bit longer? (There's a possible reason why not and I'll get to it in a moment…)
The other rumor — and again, let's remember these are rumors sourced to no one — is an 11 PM Jay Leno talk show on Fox. There are many reasons why that would not happen, starting with Leno's age and the number of years it might take Fox to clear that time slot for him. Not so long ago, I thought Fox was unlikely…but I also thought the kind of ratings and demographics Jay is now getting were unlikely.
Anyway, this rumor has several parts. One is that many of the key Fox affiliates have told the parent network that they want Jay. Most of them have invested heavily in things like Seinfeld reruns for that hour and were reluctant to move them when an 11 PM Conan show was under discussion. Conan, however, would have been going to Fox from a position of failure, whereas Jay would be arriving with many, many years of winning his time slot. So, the buzz goes, they're looking at Jay's current numbers and saying they're willing to clear space for the guy.
Another part of the rumor is that Roger Ailes and Rupert Murdoch of Fox want Leno there. Both are vitally interested in electing Republicans to office. Both believe that appearances on late night TV can help that happen. Both, it is said, feel Leno is the only late night host who gives Republican guests a fair shake. When Murdoch a few years ago expressed an interest in purchasing The Wall Street Journal, many of his advisors told him it was a bad investment. He reportedly replied, "I don't care. I want it." And he made an acquisition that wasn't logical from a business standpoint.
And there's one last part of the rumor: NBC no longer owns their old Burbank studio, the building where Johnny did his show and where the Tonight Show segued to the Leno era. But Jay likes the offices and the crew there…and this part of the rumor says that Fox is offering or will offer to rent out the space so Jay and his crew can do their new show from the same facilities.
So are these rumors true? I'd bet they both aren't. If there's a real possibility of Leno winding up with an 11 PM Fox show, I would think NBC would not extend him. They would want to keep him off the air for the rest of his contract so his momentum would peter out, his staff would scatter and he wouldn't be able to plug his new show on his old show. But it would not surprise me if at least one of these rumors is under discussion. And it also wouldn't surprise me if Leno left in February and that was that.