This is Old News and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of you skipped it —
— although I must say some of it may become New News again. I believe we're fast approaching the day when Jay Leno will be free of an NBC contract that prevents him from seriously dickering with another network to do a show once he departs The Tonight Show next February.
Whether he wants to is a good question. I've heard two people who are reasonably close to him say opposing things: That he wants another show a.s.a.p. to stay in the game and that he wants to retire from that game with his damn good track record. He's been consistently winning his time slot in all demographic areas, including the younger viewers. In fact, he's winning his time slot by a wider margin than Jimmy Fallon is winning his.
I've also heard all manner of theories as to what kind of deals, if any, will be seriously put before him. Some folks say none, he's too old for anyone to invest in. Jay will be close to 64 when he leaves The Tonight Show and even if he can win younger viewers for now, it can take many years to build a new franchise elsewhere. If you're a TV network, do you sink millions into starting a new business built around a guy who qualifies for Social Security?
Maybe. A number of people I know in the TV industry tell me there's no chance in hell Jay will get another series on any channel in more homes than C-Span3. Another number tell me with equal certainty that yes, of course he will. When else will any network have a chance to open a new time slot — late night or otherwise — with a star who has that kind of track record and is going off, as Jay probably will, in a solid first place? And I have it on good authority that some prospects have been dangled with as much dangling as his NBC deal allows.
Here's my infallible prediction: I don't know. Don't know if he wants another series. Don't know if anyone will offer him one. This is way too unprecedented for me to make a fearless forecast.
So I'm not going to write about that…now. What I am going to write about is something that's intrigued me since the Conan/Jay brouhaha went down. I spend a lot of time with friends in this business talking about ethics and manners and legalities and such. Jay got hammered a lot for either sabotaging Conan O'Brien's Tonight Show or reneging on some promise or somehow engineering a Machiavellian coup. Whatever, he came out of it all The Bad Guy in some eyes and I have never understood what people think he did wrong apart from the fact that his 10 PM show wasn't very good.
I asked here a few months ago and several of you wrote in with your takes on it. Over the next few days, I'm going to run one e-mail per day and offer up a rebuttal/defense of the guy. If the ancient history nature of it all bores you, just skip on to the next posting — which on this blog is usually an obit or a plug for Frank Ferrante. I'm just kinda interested in what people think Mr. Leno should have done differently…and in presenting an alternate view to what some critics of his actions seem to believe. I'll post the first one, which is from Jeff Stockwell, tomorrow.