A friend of mine over at NBC tells me that the reason Jay Leno isn't discussing (or making jokes about) the transition from him to Jimmy Fallon is that terms are still being negotiated. That's why NBC isn't discussing it, either. I would imagine the network wants to make sure Jay doesn't go rogue on them…or quickly reappear in some sort of competing show.
Actually, it's hard to figure where that competing show might be. Back when we went through this with Conan displacing Jay, it was a very real option (complete with actual offers) for Jay to go over and do much the same show at ABC. NBC's internal research even yielded the prediction that going head-to-head like that, Jay would beat Conan. Now, ABC's out of the question…and if Jay went into syndication or for some off-network deal, he'd never have enough clearances to be competitive at that hour.
The most likely place for him would then be Fox. That would also present a clearance problem as Fox some time ago gave up offering a network feed after 10 PM and now their local stations all have expensive (and also profitable) deals to air reruns like Seinfeld at 11 PM and after. When Conan left The Tonight Show, everyone assumed that Fox would find a way to clear that time period for him…and indeed, many Fox execs tried to make that work. But Rupert Murdoch was cool to the idea and stations weren't eager for it so it didn't happen. In his book on that whole square dance, Bill Carter said that if Jay had come on the market, all the pieces would have fallen into place…but that was then. Leno is older and more controversial…and it sure doesn't feel to me like he'll wind up with a late night show on Fox.
That's even assuming he yearns to stay in the Talk Show business. That doesn't seem likely…though as we've all seen, that which does not seem likely often happens in television. Especially late night television. I still think booting Leno for Fallon is illogical and that it won't yield the ratings betterment that NBC hopes to achieve. Meantime, I'm told Leno is already getting soft inquiries as to his availability for other TV jobs, positions other than late night talk shows. It doesn't seem likely that he'd want any of them, either.
I more or less agree with Richard Rushfield that Leno has not received proper credit for the amazing achivement of 21 years of usually winning a very tough time slot…or at worst and for a short period, finishing a profitable second. Actually, I have a hard time wrapping my brain around the idea of hating a TV star at all. I have friends who…well, if you'd given them the chance to execute Timothy McVeigh or Kathy Lee Gifford would have dropped the pellet on Kathy Lee and wondered why you had to ask. I like Leno most of the time…and for the times I don't, my TV has an off switch and my TiVo knows how to fast-forward.
I've received a whole buncha questions about the Leno/Fallon situation. I'll try and do a From the E-Mailbag post later tonight.