The Hollywood Reporter is once more telling us that NBC is planning to forcibly retire Jay Leno from The Tonight Show and rotate Jimmy Fallon into that slot as soon as next summer. We went through this a few months ago with many a media expert saying Jay's departure was a Done Deal; that there was no way the network would extend him again. Then they extended him again.
It kinda fascinates me how often everyone has been wrong about this guy. In Bill Carter's book on the Jay/Conan debacle, he quotes Lorne Michaels as saying "Fortunes have been lost underestimating Jay Leno." I can't think of anyone who so consistently defies predictions of impending demise. He more or less became Johnny Carson's Guest Host as a second choice. Most at NBC then wanted Garry Shandling to replace Joan Rivers in that capacity but Garry was too busy so at first, it was Garry and Jay switching off and the sense was that Shandling was the new Guest Host and Leno was kind of the Guest Host's Guest Host. Then Shandling withdrew and industry pundits doubted Jay could hold down the fort.
He did just fine. Then when Johnny left, they said he couldn't hold Carson's audience. He did. Then when Letterman came on against him, they said Jay would be replaced. He wasn't. Then they said okay, so he's finishing a respectable second…but he'll never beat Dave in total viewers. He did. Then they said he'd never best Dave in the 18-49 age bracket. He did. Then they said it wouldn't last. It did. Then they said Jay was just being buoyed by strong programming at 10 PM and would never hold his lead once those shows died out. Then they did and he stayed on top…and so on and so on. There's something about this guy that turns everyone who forecasts his collapse into Dick "Obama has zero chance of getting re-elected" Morris.
People in this business get fired all the time because they aren't in First Place. Only with Leno do his bosses say, "He's in First Place. Let's get rid of him." He was in First Place when there was a move inside NBC to dump him and install Letterman in that job. Dave didn't accept or they would have. Jay was in First Place when they actually did dump him and put Conan O'Brien there. That didn't work out so now Jay's back and he's in First Place…and they're reportedly talking about firing him yet again.
Don't tell me it's because his show sucks. First of all, I don't think it does. I think he's phoning it in…but I find the current Letterman less watchable and the two Jimmies unwatchable. And secondly, even if it does, when has that ever been a consideration in cancelling a network television show? Do we think one single person in the television industry believes Dancing With the Stars is a quality program? Or the current Saturday Night Live? It's almost a running gag in television that the folks running any network don't watch their biggest hit and don't understand why anyone does.
Now admittedly, Leno is only in First Place by a hair or two lately. He's a bit ahead in Total Viewers and holding his own against Jimmy Kimmel in the 18-49 bracket. In the latter category, he's again topping all expectations though, also admittedly, he has a lot more viewers at the 49 end of that demographic than around the 18. It would not be unscientific to presume he will start losing in that capacity before long…except for the fact that for something like two decades now, every single prediction that Leno's Tonight Show numbers would plunge has been dead wrong.
They always underestimate this man. You know the one time they didn't? When they thought he could establish a franchise at 10 PM every weeknight. And even that got the numbers they expected but so damaged the affiliates' 11 PM local news programs that NBC had to yank it. So they stuck him back in at 11:30 and again, wizened heads said that while he'd do better than Conan did there, he could never get to First Place there again…and now there he is in First Place with NBC saying, "Let's get rid of him." I don't know if they will or even if Fallon would really be the replacement…but someone's suggesting it again. Yeah, it doesn't make sense but it didn't make sense the last time they did it, either.
I don't really care that much about Leno's show. I just like something about a guy who so consistently gets written-off and then proves the prognosticators wrong. Eventually, predictions of his permanent departure will come true. Maybe that time is at hand, in part because NBC will make it be at hand. All I know is that whenever he goes off and stays off, all those who've been wrong over and over for two decades about Jay Leno will say, "See? I told you he wouldn't last."