The Romney campaign is going all out to insist he's going to win and it's in the bag. I think you have to do that when it looks like you won't and it isn't. The Obama campaign is more along the lines of "He's going to win…with your help." So it pretty much comes down to this concept: Obama will win unless a lot of Obama voters are less enthusiastic about going to the polls than the Romney voters.
My assumption that Obama will win is based on the simple observation that while Romney has occasionally nosed ahead in the popular vote totals, he's never been anywhere close to 270 in the electoral vote projections. I don't think anyone who's been averaging and weighting the polls and fitting them into computer models has ever had Romney above 257 and in most, he tops out at 235. The 257 count seems to me to be giving him every state where he's in the ballgame.
This is discounting those who can't even conceal the fact that they desperately want Romney to win Obama to lose. Here's an article that lists seven of these analysts who think Obama will win. These guys all seem to me to be more interested in being right than in pushing "their guy."
If somehow Romney pulls it off…well, I'll be fearful for my country and especially for the health and welfare of the poor and middle-class, but not as fearful as I'd be if there seemed to be a chance of a G.O.P. Senate. Which now looks darn near impossible.
I would also take some comfort in two other things…
- I think it would be a great benefit for Democracy if one of these times, all the major pollsters were dead wrong. I don't want it to be this time…but sometime.
- And at least this friggin' election would be over. Really. I'm sick up to here (about forehead level and I'm very tall) of ads and robocalls about the propositions and a few minor races. I can't imagine what it must be like in states where the presidential vote matters.
I don't think those comfort points will be necessary. I also don't think charges of "it'll mean the end of America" are warranted in either case…or ever with the Democrat or Republican candidates. There are an awful lot of ways in which I think one — guess which one — is better for this country than the other. But an awful lot in which they're the same and America is a lot stronger than those differences.