I've thought all along that the Obama-Biden ticket was going to win another four years but that there would be times before November 6 when that seemed in doubt. My Republican friends have long thought that given the economy, anybody should be able to beat Obama. I think that would be so if most Americans blamed him wholly or even largely for the unemployment rate and other indicators…but they don't. More blame George W. Bush — and therefore a lot of policies that don't sound all that different from what Romney-Ryan seem to have in mind. A lot also think that due to Republican obstructionism, Obama hasn't been able to fix the economy the way he should have/could have.
Regardless of the way the electorate is actually skewing, there are too many factions around that don't want to let it be over until it's over…and in some cases, not even then. The news media, just for the sheer love of ratings and attention, needs to not let it be over. The Republican party, if only to turn out the G.O.P. base so it will vote for other Repubs in other contests that day, needs to make that base think there's a good chance of ousting Obama.
And then there's still a lot of election to go. I don't know what the overall impact will be of this new Romney "47%" tape but it's changed the election somehow. Tomorrow, something else could come out of nowhere the same way — something about Obama, something about Romney, whatever — that could change it again. Heck, either of those guys could say something really, really stupid in the debates and the election would suddenly become all or mostly about that stupid thing that guy said.
And lastly, I don't think Mitt Romney is going to go down to defeat without trying Plan B or maybe Plan C or Plan D. Just as if he was ahead, the Obama folks would try to make it a brand-new ball game somehow.
I still think Obama's going to win but we have a lot of mud to get through before that can happen. And a lot of moments when it will look like maybe it won't.