A new Los Angeles Times poll has Cruz Bustamante way ahead of Arnold Schwarzenegger, 35% to 22%. Following them are Tom McClintock with 12%, Peter Ueberroth with 7%, Bill Simon with 6%, Arianna Huffington with 3%, and Peter Camejo and Larry Flynt tied with 1%. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
I don't believe this poll is any more valid than the one the other day that had Bustamante slightly ahead, or the one that had Arnold ahead. For emphasis: I don't believe any of these tell us how folks will vote in October.
However, there's one interesting thing here. The California Broadcasters Association has announced a debate, to be held September 17, of candidates on the second part of the ballot. Gray Davis will not be invited, they say, but they will ask the top six contenders, as determined by non-partisan polling in the coming weeks. If any of the six decline, they say, a chair will be left empty for them.
Now, if they choose to use the L.A. Times poll as their guide, the top six would be Bustamante, Schwarzenegger, McClintock, Ueberroth, Simon and Huffington. I have a hunch they picked six as the cut-off because they figured it would be those six; that the joke or fringe candidates like Flynt and Gallagher would be far enough behind the sixth place contender to justify excluding them. But Simon has dropped out…so does he get included? Why leave an empty chair for a guy who says he's not running? But if you leave him out, you have to include Camejo…and LARRY FLYNT! That's right: We may have a crippled, "loose cannon" pornographer in our gubernatorial debate. This could be very entertaining, and make the whole recall look even sillier than it already does.
They may have to include Flynt, anyway. He's within the margin of error of Huffington, and can afford lawyers who can certainly argue that he can't be excluded from a debate that includes her. Between now and the 17th, he could easily get 2% or 3% in some poll and even be ahead of Simon…so then how do they keep the publisher of Hustler's Hometown Honeys out? I don't know either, but I bet they try to modify or apply the rules so they don't have to build a wheelchair ramp to the stage.