Interesting, of course, to see everyone spinning the recall verdict in the most positive light for their faction. Depending on which weblog you visit today, it either represents a victory for the conservative movement in California because of how much of the vote Schwarzenegger and McClintock got between them…or a loss because of how many liberal positions Arnold had to have to get that. It could be good for Bush because it means that Arnold will presumably be governor in 2004 and may be able to help the state and raise money, or it could be bad for Bush because it could start the trend of throwing out elected officials who run up deficits. It could be good for the Democratic and Republican establishment because Independents did so poorly or it could be bad because it represents an electoral urge to toss out career politicians and bring in outsiders.
It could lead to cleaner elections because all the reports of Arnold grabbing women didn't hurt him and maybe helped, or it could lead to dirtier elections because the hatchet job on Gray Davis worked and because Arnold proved you don't have to define your positions to win. It could lead to lower taxes in California because Arnold will be a better manager or it could lead to higher because he'll feel the need to quickly wipe out deficits and the sooner he raises taxes, the easier it will be to blame them on Davis. It could lead to elected officials not only in California but across the nation becoming more responsive to the people because they fear they'll be recalled or it could lead to them catering more to the special interests that could defuse any recall attempt.
I don't know which way a lot of these things will play out and neither do you. My guess is that people who supported Arnold will like him a lot less once we get down to the specifics of what state programs will be cut and what sources of revenue will be increased. Some have suggested that former governor Pete Wilson and his crew will really be running the state with Arnold as figurehead. I sure hope that's not true. I can't think of a single rotten thing you could say about Gray Davis that wasn't equally true of Wilson. If that becomes the power structure in Sacramento, the Schwarzenegger era will probably be a lot more like the Davis era than anyone in either camp is now prepared to admit.