For whatever it's worth, I think Gray Davis's chances went from slim to just about none yesterday — as much because of Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante entering the race as Arnold Schwarzenegger. This may come down to a horse race between the two people whose last names are the most difficult to spell. If this were a write-in election, neither one of them would stand a chance.
Before yesterday, Davis stood a good chance of making it all about the legitimacy of the recall effort. Even a lot of people who don't like him as governor think the method of removal smells and is a bad precedent. But now instead of discussing that, all anyone's going to be talking about is Arnold, Arnold, Arnold. He lacks experience and is perhaps not prepared to devote 100% of his energy to the job…or so his opponents will say. But he's otherwise a not-unappealing candidate.
Some Democrats will like him because his views are not unlike theirs: He's somewhat pro-choice, somewhat in favor of gun control and gay rights. He even once said he was "ashamed" of his party for the impeachment of Bill Clinton.
Most Republicans will like him because…well, he's a Republican. Republicans like to win. With the Democrats, lately it doesn't seem like that big a deal.
The entry into the fray of Bustamante further erodes Davis's chances. If you're concerned, like many, that the recall process is a farce, you crave stability. You might have wished that Davis — who probably cannot govern, no matter what — would have just resigned and handed command over to the next guy legally in line. The next guy legally in line is Bustamante. (The way some have interpreted the law, there shouldn't even be a second part to the ballot. It should give voters the option of ousting Davis and if they do, the job goes to Bustamante. I'll bet he thinks that too but thinks the court battles to enforce that would have been endless, would have destablized the state government for a long time, and would have convinced a lot of Californians that he was trying to use a loophole to steal the office.) In any event, the argument will be made that he's somehow entitled to the office.
And it's not over yet. There are court challenges to come and more candidates. According to this report, Riordan was blindsided by Arnold's announcement. Already, you can hear Davis's office whipping up the talking points: Arnold stabbed a friend in the back and then lied about it. (They'd dig up dirt on Larry Flynt but he's already published most of it himself — and with great pride.) And I'll bet you any day now, someone official announces that the cost of the recall election will top $100 million.
Like Leno said the other night, "Here's how bad California looks to the rest of the country: People in Florida are laughing at us."