Go read my pal Bob Elisberg on the current status of the WGA/AMPTP Negotiations (or lack of any). Bob and I didn't discuss this at all but we both thought it over and came out in pretty much the same place. The Guild will get royally hosed if it starts giving in to ultimatums just to get the AMPTP back to the bargaining table…especially since the AMPTP will just repeat the tactic to try and get us to give in on more points.
In other news: The DGA says it will hold off on negotiating its usual "early deal" with the AMPTP until January, which is not much of a delay, especially with the holidays looming. The DGA never really strikes. They did once for fifteen minutes but they do not have any sort of serious strike capability. There are a couple of reasons for this, the main one being that the Directors Guild does not merely represent directors. Its membership includes assistant directors, stage managers, production associates, unit production managers, technical coordinators and other folks who are not as directly impacted by most of the so-called strike points. Many of these people, for instance, only receive residuals indirectly through their health and pension plans. Many have no stake in the "creative" issues.
The other problem the DGA has in striking is that many of its members who are directors are rather entrepreneurial. They often own pieces of the movies they direct so aren't all that concerned with DVD revenues, or think of themselves more as employers than employees. That's a generalization, of course, and many DGA members are fine, dedicated creative types who care about everyone. But it's not easy for a union that contains so many disparate types to find the common ground necessary for a successful strike. What the DGA usually does is to make quick-and-dirty deals that get them a little more of whatever they want, and the AMPTP tries to build concessions into those deals that don't matter much to the DGA but which will matter to SAG and the WGA if the same terms can be forced on them via Pattern Bargaining.
Standard Operating Procedure for the AMPTP in this case would be to figure out a deal covering Internet Streaming that would benefit the DGA but if applied to actors and writers, would not result in any real revenue for them. The DGA would grab those terms and then the AMPTP position would be, "This is the deal. The DGA took it so the WGA and SAG must take it and we will not discuss any other formula, end of discussion." The 1981 WGA Strike was essentially about us refusing to accept the deal that the DGA had accepted for home video and cable.
In that case, we had a three month strike and in the end, the AMPTP backed down and gave us a different deal…one tailored for writers and their different situation. It was not only better for us than what the DGA had accepted but the directors later decided it would be better for them, too. (It was also such a good deal that in 1985, the AMPTP insisted on renegotiating it and cutting it back…but that's another story and not a pretty one.)
Something similar may happen this time but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that DGA negotiations can help the WGA by knocking down some stone walls. The AMPTP will have to give the DGA something better than they've offered us regarding the Internet and that may open the door for us there. They also may not be able to figure out a way to give the DGA a good deal there that won't be good for us and SAG. Moreover, there are points on which the AMPTP has dug in its heels with us that they'll have to relent on to sign the DGA — this idea that they can call anything they want "promotional" and not pay for its use, for example. I can't imagine the DGA buying that even if it does mean going on strike. If they can get rid of it, we can get rid of it.
And who knows? The AMPTP may just overplay its hand — it wouldn't be the first time — and not be able to make a deal with the DGA. The Directors have until the end of July before they'd have to walk out, by which time either the WGA and SAG will have made their deals or the town will be in full-scale chaos. The DGA doesn't have to have a new contract for a long time so they don't have to accept something markedly less than what they want. They don't have to undermine the other unions. And if they can't arrive at reasonable terms with the AMPTP, that will pretty much prove that it isn't the WGA that's the problem.