It's kind of a toss-up as to who had the worse week, P.R.-wise: Rudy Giuliani or Carson Daly. "America's Mayor" is being battered by one revelation after another about trysts and cheating on his wife and using city funds and facilities to chauffeur his lady friend about. The host of Last Call with Carson Daly is losing respect left and right for his decision to cross the WGA picket line and resume the taping of his show.
Not that he had a lot before that. It is worth recalling the history of that show, which used to be called Later. It was hosted by Bob Costas. It was hosted by Greg Kinnear. It was hosted by Cynthia Garrett. It was hosted by a pretty wide array of temporary guest hosts who were auditioning for the permanent gig. What NBC came to decide was that it almost didn't matter who hosted it. The ratings were a rather predictable function of two factors: How "promotable" the lead guest was, and the size of the lead-in from Conan O'Brien's program. Of the two, the latter has probably been the more important. The host? Not that big a deal.
Mr. Daly, who does a nice enough job in the post, was chosen for a couple of reasons, one being that NBC felt they had to pick someone. Another was the hope — which has been generally realized — that his age and MTV background would draw in, if not a larger audience then at least a younger audience. The most important thing though was that NBC was hoping to use the slot to groom a new NBC star — someone who might be of value to them in earlier day parts. If Daly suffers in any way for his picket-line crossing, it will probably be in that area…but perhaps that was already a lost cause. It's been a long time since I heard his name mentioned as a possible replacement for O'Brien when he takes over The Tonight Show. Or for anything else.
It's easy to get angry at Daly…or at Ellen DeGeneres, who is also doing her talk show, sans writers. The decision to go back could be opportunism or it could be a genuine concern for the future of the show, the incomes of the staff, etc. The assumption out there seems to be that Daly was told, in effect, "Go back and do your show or you're fired." NBC can't afford to punish Conan O'Brien for staying out, and Jay Leno is leaving anyway…but they could put a gun to Carson Daly's head. If they indeed did that, it was probably just pique. The network's late night numbers are in the sub-basement, Conan O'Brien's show is delivering low lead-ins…and new episodes of Last Call probably won't do markedly better than reruns.
Obviously, as a loyal WGAer, I'd have preferred that Ellen and Carson not go back. Obviously too, we can't fully assess the pressures and reasons that both chose to risk damage to their images and the wrath of certain friends. I find it a little difficult to get too outraged over the choices they made, especially since I don't know much about the "why" of those choices. In any case, I don't think it does much to change the dynamic of the strike. The networks are still without too many of their money-making programs. They wouldn't be any more eager to settle thing if they didn't have new episodes of Ellen and Last Call.
Mr. Leno is presently getting some bad press because, though David Letterman and Conan O'Brien have announced they will continue to pay their staffs during the strike, Jay has not. Since he's soon to vacate his show — and since, unlike Letterman, he isn't sole owner of his show — he's in a little different situation. More significantly, Leno has been locked in his own negotiation for some time. I never thought NBC could have done much to change the "Who will replace Johnny?" scenario. I think there was really only one way that whole thing could have played out, which was the way it did. But now they're into a train wreck — Leno being ousted when his popularity is still high — that didn't have to happen. Last I heard, talks to keep Leno with NBC in some capacity (or at least, off Fox) were getting hot 'n' heavy.
Which makes me curious why, as noted here earlier, NBC is rerunning ancient Leno Tonight Shows, episodes that Jay himself has said many times he never wanted to have seen again. Does that mean the haggling is over? That NBC is now presuming Leno is going to be competition? Or is this just some sneaky way to pressure him to come back to work and/or sign a new NBC deal? I have no idea…but there's something going on there and it ain't just about the strike. Maybe when all the dust clears, NBC is going to need a new host for one of its three late night shows. I have a hunch Rudy Giuliani may be available.