What I believe was the last Zogby poll on the Iowa caucuses had Kerry receiving 25%, Dean at 22%, Edwards at 21% and Gephardt with 18%. Allowing for the margin of error, that's pretty much a tie. Now, for reasons explained back in this article, the final totals are not exact but they're going to be (give or take a point) Kerry with 38%, Edwards with 32%, Dean with 18% and Gephardt at 11%. Even with all the caveats, the polling was pretty far off.
The Zogby poll is the one that, back in 2000, predicted the New York Senate race was coming down to a dead heat. Here's a quote from the day before that vote…
The Colgate/Zogby International Poll also paid carefully attention to the equally close senatorial race between Lazio and Clinton. "I think we're looking at a one point race," Zogby said. "I have no idea what's going to happen on Tuesday." Zogby observed that even although Lazio leads in the polls, it is not the lead that he would like to have over Clinton.
The next day, Hillary Clinton beat Rick Lazio 56%-44%. And yet the media still subscribes to the Zogby poll and pundits still discuss its projections as if we can learn important data from them.