It's tempting to try and predict the outcome of the Michael Jackson trial. But then I remember that those jurors sat there for 14 weeks and heard something like 130 witnesses, whereas I've paid maybe an hour's worth of attention to the matter and only heard/read third-hand paraphrases of some teensy fraction of the testimony. That doesn't mean they'll come to the right decision — one O.J. jury was certainly wrong — but real jurors have a perspective and a possession of the facts that are generally unavailable to us casual, armchair jurors. Maybe we ought to trust them more than we do to judge the case that was presented in court. They're also burdened with rules of evidence and points of law that do not encumber our judgment…and of course, we have the luxury that if we're wrong, no one gets hurt.
Many of the Talking Heads on cable TV are avoiding predictions but those that have a view seem to think there's no way Michael will be found guilty; that we're looking at either an acquittal or a hung jury. The latter possibility may be just wishful thinking from folks who are making good livings covering this Jackson trial and wouldn't mind another. It doesn't hurt to keep in mind that a lot of these same experts told us that Robert Blake was a sure bet for a quick conviction.
As I understand it, the jury could boot the molestation charges and convict Jackson of one or more counts of furnishing alcohol to minors. That sounds like a nice "compromise" move if they're as conflicted as the press coverage of the trial might suggest. But maybe they're not conflicted one bit. Maybe they're sure, one way or the other. I'm not going to make the mistake again of being shocked at a verdict because I expected the jury to see things the same way I did after some casual glances at the MSNBC coverage. It's the real world in that jury room. The only prediction I can express with any confidence is that regardless of the verdict, Michael Jackson will never be Michael Jackson again.