AP has a story out headlined "Experts Say Gibson's Apology Too Late." Who are these experts? They're described in the story as "celebrity crisis management experts" but there's really no such animal. What they are is publicists — folks whose main line of work is getting their clients mentioned in the press and onto magazine covers.
There are no experts in celebrity crisis management because there's no science there. Every celebrity is a little different in his or her public image and every scandal is different from every other scandal. Moreover, the playing field is constantly changing. What was shocking five years ago might not trigger a raised eyebrow today. Not all that long ago, if it came out that a major male star had openly used marijuana, participated in public group sex and groped unwilling women in the workplace, that star's name would have been mud. When all that came out about Arnold Schwarzenegger, people shrugged and his name became Governor. That may or may not be a proper response on the part of the public but what "expert" would have predicted it?
Expertise is based on precedents and there's no recent case of a star of Mel Gibson's magnitude getting caught making anti-Semetic remarks. And even if there were, it's different with Gibson because he's the guy who gave us The Passion of the Christ, about which many people had strong feelings, and it's well-known that his father is a Holocaust denier. Also, he made his remarks while drunk and some people — I'm not one of them — think you aren't responsible for what you say or do when intoxicated. Add to that that given what's going on overseas, this is a touchy time to be out there raising the idea that Jews are responsible for all wars and we're really in uncharted territory.
So will people forgive Mel Gibson? Some certainly will because some people don't think there's anything all that wrong with what he said. But no one knows how others will react. My guess is that there will be protests and boycotts of his next project or two and that he'll lose a few deals as some sectors of Hollywood distance themselves from the guy. At some point though, he'll make a big apology tour. He'll swear sobriety and denounce religious bigotry and surround himself with Jewish leaders who will praise his atonement and all the projects he will be doing for them and their people. All that plus his considerable personal charm will cause most of the anger to blow over.
Then it will just be a matter of whether he's making movies that people want to see…which is all that usually matters in his line of work. If he makes movies like Lethal Weapon and Braveheart, he'll remain a movie star and some people will say that the public was too quick to forgive an anti-Semite. If he makes crummy movies, his career will be over…but then if you make bad films, your career ends even if you don't get busted for drunk-driving and start talking like a Klansman. People will blame the arrest but it will really be the movies that destroy his career.
At least, this is my guess…and I emphasize that it's just a guess. All I know is that no one knows what's going to happen to the guy's stardom, not even those "experts." Because like I say, they aren't experts. They're just publicists trying to get some publicity for themselves.