Here's the first Presidential Debate chopped down to a minute. You don't lose that much…
As I mentioned here that night, I didn't think either guy landed any serious punches. I'm amazed that all the major polls scored it as a decisive win for Obama and that it seems to have given him a nice boost in his electoral prospects. Quinnipiac, which is usually a good one, now has him above 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Those numbers are a bit higher than other polls but he certainly isn't doing badly in any of those states.
The Quinnipiac people note that "No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College" but as I read the electoral map, Obama could win easily even if he lost Florida and Ohio. John Kerry lost both and wound up with 251 votes. The only state Kerry won that currently looks marginal (and only in some polls) for Obama is New Hampshire. That's four electoral votes…but Obama is comfortably ahead in Iowa, a state whose seven electoral votes didnt go to Kerry last time. If Obama lost New Hampshire and won Iowa, he'd be at 254. That would mean he'd need 16 votes to get to 270 and win the presidency.
Bush carried Colorado (9 votes) and New Mexico (5) and Obama is presently ahead in both. Winning both would get Obama to 268. He's currently leading in Virginia, which Bush won and which has 13 votes. He's tied in North Carolina, another state Bush won, which has 15 votes, and some polls show him within a point or two in Indiana and Missouri, each of which have eleven.
If he holds onto all of Kerry's states or even if he loses New Hampshire, there are many combinations that could result in 270+ electoral votes without Florida or Ohio…or he could just win either of those two. McCain could still take it but he obviously has a rougher time of it. He probably does have to win both Florida and Ohio…and even that may not do it for him.
In other news, the ABC News/Washington Post poll now has George W. Bush at a record 70% disapproval rating, the lowest ever. That's two points lower than rectal itch and a statistical tie with cholera.