For a year or three after Jay Leno replaced Johnny Carson on The Tonight Show, there were industry pundits going around calling that move the greatest programming error in the history of television. They were speaking in terms of lost or foregone revenue…and I always thought the criticism was ridiculous. For one thing, even at his lowest ratings ebb, Mr. Leno made a lot of money for NBC. The biggest mistake ever would probably involve something that lost money, don'tcha think?
Secondly, if you know the history of the changeover, there was never a real moment when it would have made sense to stick Dave Letterman in that job. It was not a question of Johnny announcing his retirement and the NBC execs then being able to sit down and debate, "Should we give it to Jay or Dave?" The way Carson operated, keeping the network off-balance as to how long he'd stay, prevented that from happening. The folks then running the network might well have made the same selection but the point is that they didn't have that luxury. Somewhere else on this site, I know I've explained why that was.
In any case, after a while in second place behind Dave, Leno took over the lead and has never looked back. I know there are folks out there who can't stand him as a performer (I am not among them) but this isn't about that. It's about delivering audience shares and that, he's done to great success. Over the years, there have been a lot of predictions that Leno would fold, that Leno's audience would desert him, that his ratings would plunge, etc. They've all been dead wrong. The man's track record is a smashing success, defying all underestimations.
A few years ago, the folks upstairs at NBC made another "Leno's going to falter" prediction that they probably now regret. When it looked like Conan O'Brien might decamp for an earlier time slot elsewhere, they engineered a deal to give him Leno's, forcing Jay into a retirement in May of '09. If Jay was now wearing out his welcome, that would have a brilliant bit of strategy but it hasn't worked out that way. If anything, it's O'Brien's show that's fading. I'm a big fan of Conan but even I think his show's been weaker in the last year or so, and the ratings suggest I'm not alone in my opinion. Jay, meanwhile, is finding himself in the position that every baseball player probably dreams about: He's at the top of his game and the peak of his popularity…and he's a free agent.
No one seems to know what Leno will do. It will involve staggering sums of cash but beyond that, it's all speculation. There are rumors of huge mega-deals to headline regularly in Vegas for sums that would make him one of the highest-paid performers in the history of show business…and those are the fallback offers. Those are the deals he might make in addition to whatever he decides to do in television. NBC is firm that they will not renege on the realignment of late night but there are reports they may make some deal with Jay that would kick in if O'Brien's ratings dip below a specified number. There's talk of Jay on ABC displacing Nightline; of an 11 PM show on Fox or in syndication; of other time slots on NBC.
My guess? The guy will take his time, waiting for The Right Offer to come along. He can go play Vegas for huge sums of cash until it does. Why rush into something?
So Conan will move to L.A. and do The Tonight Show and, it's just been announced, custody of the 12:30 show will pass to Jimmy Fallon of Saturday Night Live fame. He doesn't strike me as a good fit for that slot: Too low key, too lacking in the kind of authority that a host needs. Actually, I think the whole late night format of a guy chatting with folks who have a movie out next week has gotten somewhat stale, accounting for an across-the-board audience pullback from all such programs. Seems to me that what they need there now is someone who's going to shake up the franchise and do something radical. I could be wrong but Fallon suggests to me an amiable, likable presence…not someone you expect to take the talk show franchise to the next level. Then again, Lorne Michaels has a pretty good track record so we may all be surprised.
Still, if I were in the business of TV programming at the moment — say, if I were a Big Time Syndicator — I think I'd be smelling an opportunity. I'd be hustling to produce some alternatives to debut at the same time or (even better) a little before the O'Brien/Fallon parlay makes its debut. I'm wondering when that will be.
My recollection is that when the Leno/O'Brien displacement was announced, it was said that Conan would leave Late Night some time before he took over Tonight so he could have several months of prep time. Is that still the plan? The leaked stories about Fallon taking over make it sound like on some Friday next May, Leno will do his last Tonight and Conan will do his last Late Night…and then the following Monday, Conan will host Tonight and Fallon will debut in the slot following him. I don't think it's going to work like that.
More likely, Conan will leave Late Night early in '09, maybe with a big send-off during the February sweeps period, whereupon Fallon will step in. Then during the May sweeps — or they could even postpone it a bit, say until the following ratings period — we'd have the big "Farewell to Jay" shows and then Conan would assume command at 11:30. Something like that.
As soon as that timetable is firmed up, expect a flurry of activity among competitors. Everyone in broadcasting except maybe CBS is going to look for the chance to break NBC's dominance of late night. Even if Jimmy Fallon turns out to be the best thing to happen to that daypart since the invention of the airhead starlet, this is the time to make a move…before he develops any sort of following. And if he flops, you want to be there with the show people will turn to instead.
Like I said, I don't think the decision to give The Tonight Show to Jay Leno was anywhere near the dumbest move ever in network programming. It may have been one of the smartest. But right now, all throughout the industry, a lot of people are wondering if taking it away from him is going to turn out to be the dumbest. Certainly, the potential is there.