Well, how about if we talk about the Writers Strike? There are two votes to look at. One is the vote that's going on at this moment…a simple vote on whether to end the strike. Members have to go to the Writers Guild Theater in Beverly Hills today to vote — either that or fax in a proxy. Since everyone knows the contract is going to pass, I can't conceive of any argument for not ending the strike, nor do I imagine a lot of people will go to the trouble to vote at all. Voting closes at 6 PM and I'll bet they're able to tally the votes and, in time for the 11 PM News, announce that the strike is over. (I'll also bet that some members are already getting back to work. I mean, it's not like anyone's going to be prosecuted for scabbing if they start writing today.)
The vote to accept the contract will take a bit longer but it will go the same way. Right now, as per the Guild Constitution, "pro" and "con" statements are being solicited to go in with the ballot. I don't know who's writing a "con" statement and I'm sure they don't think they have a prayer of swaying enough votes to matter…but it will probably read a lot like this article by Kim Masters that argues that the deal isn't as good as some are making it out to be.
I'd like the contract to pass but I'd like it to pass 51% to 49%. I always like that. It gets you to the same place but it reminds the other side that what they gave us was just barely acceptable and a comparable offer next time might not be. It's not, however, going to pass with 51%. It's going to be more like 90% and even that might be an underestimate.
So now the big question is the Screen Actors Guild. They have a lot of the same issues we had and they also have quite a few that are specific to what they do. On the "same" issues, one presumes they're going to go for more…especially in the area of jurisdiction for New Media. What the writers get in a deal like this is not always directly comparable to what the actors get because we do different things but I doubt SAG is going to be satisfied with exempting as much of that marketplace as the WGA and the DGA have. My "read" of the actors is that they're even more militant than we were, and we were pretty danged militant. So if the AMPTP thinks they can offer them the same thing and avoid an actors' walkout, Jay and Dave and Conan may be getting more time off.