R.D. Francis just sent me this message…
Isn't it early to write Giuliani out of the race? My understanding is that he's had a poor showing at least in part because his campaign is focused on the states with the most delegates to the convention, and where he expects to be able to do well (like New York state).
Now, it's still entirely possible that, in spite of not being mathematically eliminated, his profile will simply have slipped low enough (or that the people will assume that the numbers he's gotten are the best he can do in the states the have held their caucuses and primaries) that he won't do well even where he is trying; but, in all fairness, the real test of the strategy has not yet arrived.
I admit to being a bit curious; I'm not sure what the minimum number of states one can take and still win the nomination (or, for that matter, the presidency) is. I'm not so fond of this strategy, as it allows for the practical disenfranchisement of any number of smaller states (from Alaska and Hawaii to Rhode Island and Maine, at a guess). After all, what the American people really don't need is more reasons to feel disenfranchised or divided.
Giuliani has yet to win a primary and yes, he's pinned his strategy on big states like Florida and New York. But at the moment, he's running a distant third in Florida and may even come in fourth. In New York, the most recent USA Today/Gallup poll has McCain at 42% in that state and Giuliani at 24%. Now admittedly, the polls have not been that accurate in these primaries but they'd have to be a lot wronger than they've been for Rudy to take either state, and he probably needs both. (Also admittedly, there was a point where it looked like McCain was running for naught but Giuliani doesn't have time to make that kind of turnaround.)
Technically, I believe anyone can still win. As I understand it, if no one clinches a majority of the delegates before the convention — possible, not probable — and no one wins on the first ballot, Al Gore and Jeb Bush could sweep into their respective conventions and be nominated and we could have the 2000 election all over again. I don't think that's going to happen, just as I don't think Rudy is going to be the nominee. Not with his past showing in primaries, not with his poll numbers in the upcoming ones, and not with so many prominent G.O.P. leaders clearly opposed to him. My guess is he does so poorly in Florida that he pulls out then, rather than endure the humiliation of having his home state knock him out completely.