Rumors during the current Writers Strike have been about as reliable as rumors in past strikes. They're spreading faster, thanks to the increased presence of the Internet, but they're not getting any more reliable. About a third turn out to be true, about a third have some nugget of truth in them, and the rest are utter swamp gas. In show business — and I presume it's like this to some extent in most fields — people don't like to admit that they're out of the loop and don't have the kind of great insider connections that give them instant word on all the secret goings-on. So they pass on and amplify rumors, no matter what the source, and sometimes just make things up.
In the '81 strike (I think it was…they all run together), a writing team I know decided to invent a few rumors and pass them around, just to see what kind of life they'd have. One I recall was that the lead negotiators for both sides had taken the night off, gone to dinner separately…but found themselves by coincidence in the same restaurant, sitting at adjoining tables. This had not happened. The writing team just invented it from the whole cloth and told a few (just a few) people. To their amazement, the tale came back to them from a number of sources, some of whom had added details and embellishments, including a bit of food-throwing by the lead negotiators and even the name of the restaurant where it had allegedly occurred. One person said he'd heard it from someone who was there at the time and had witnessed the whole thing.
It helps to remember that sometimes there's no truth whatsoever in a rumor. Zero. It doesn't come from anyone in a position to know. It also helps to remember that it's not unprecedented for one side to plant a rumor that they think may sway public opinion and put more pressure on the other side.
At the moment, the grapevine has it that informal talks in the WGA Strike are going quite well and that may be so. I mean, this one sounds likely. Informal talks often go well because they're conducted in a friendlier atmosphere. The participants are less worried that they're about to agree to something foolish and permanent. After all, they still have the formal talks to act as a kind of fail-safe stage wherein they can dance away from something agreed-to in the informal chats.
Also, of course, it is not uncommon to use the informal talks to soften up one's opponent, lulling them into the mindset that all is well, that the end is in sight and that the formal talks are just…well, a formality. Then at the last second, you toss in a hand grenade — some small but potent loophole or demand that favors your side — in the hope that the other side is so emotionally committed to this being the end that they won't put up a fuss. A lawyer once told me that he was always wary of what was said on the way out of a negotiation…
You have your briefcase packed and your coat on and your car keys in your hand. You're thinking, "Well, that's finally over" and you're trying to decide where to stop and pick up a pizza on the way home. That's when, ever so casually, the other side mentions, "Don't you worry…we'll draw up all the paperwork and we'll make sure we include that language about revenues from Brazil." Sometimes, you're so weary and eager to get home, you let it slide. And sometimes, you're home and eating pizza with anchovies by the time you realize, "Hey, we never agreed to anything about revenues from Brazil!"
Stuff like that. So when you hear that they have "an agreement in principle" or that "they just have to put it on paper" or "it's for all intents and purposes, a done deal," be wary. At that stage, the agreement could still explode…and sometimes doesn't but should. And maybe the report wasn't even true in the first place.
None of this is meant to suggest that I think we're close to that phase or that the current rumors are surely wrong. I still believe the strike will be over sooner rather than later, and that the studios want to get it over in the next few weeks so they can get some production done before the expiration of the Screen Actors Guild deal at the end of June. But wanting to end one of these and actually doing so are two separate matters, especially if the core member companies of the AMPTP are not precisely on the same page with it all. Do yourself a favor and stay off the emotional roller coaster of getting your hopes up with every unofficial report. We probably have another couple of big "downs" before this one is settled…and the rumors that trigger the "ups" may not even be accurate.