The late night wars are about to flare up again. Jay Leno is nearing the end of his Tonight Show run and Conan is about to take over. David Letterman is nearing the end of his current contract and it's about time for CBS to either negotiate a new deal with him or begin looking for a replacement.
At the moment, Jimmy Fallon's in an odd position. His ratings are slipping…though they're still higher than his competition on CBS, Craig Ferguson. His ratings are also higher than Conan O'Brien's were in the same time slot at the same time last year but all of this may just be because tune-in of Leno is up. Presumably, Conan will have a splashy debut and then things will settle down…and NBC has to be worried that if O'Brien's long-term numbers don't match Leno's (the thinking is they won't) the network could be in trouble on two fronts. Then the anxiety will start all over again in fall when Jay starts his 10 PM show and we find out how, if at all, that will impact late night programming.
So what'll happen with Letterman? Rumor has it that he doesn't want a long contract; that he wants one of those deals like Johnny had his last decade or so, where each year he tells the network if he feels like doing another year. CBS may not be willing to give him that. It may be more like, "Hey, commit to staying through 2013 or let us start looking for the guy who will." At a time of belt-tightening, there may also be a problem with Dave's huge salary. He'll probably get what he wants but it may take a little jello-wrestling to get there.
Right now, all eyes are on Leno and what he's going to do at 10 PM five nights a week. NBC has assembled a little video which seems to have been mainly made to sell affiliates on the idea that the new show's a good idea and that someone there has some notion of what it's going to involve. Notice the assurance of a big comedy bit to close the program each night…a way of assuring local stations that their local news won't be following a song by some musical group no one's ever heard of. Notice also that apart from that and the announcement that Jay's going to have a new studio, there really isn't any news there…though it is good to hear that Jay will be bring his Jaywalking segments to prime time. You can never get enough of laughing at really, really stupid people.
