Ken Tucker writes with the following question…
You write about the late night talk shows a lot, so I thought you might be the one who could answer a question I have about them, which I don't remember you ever talking about in your blog (though maybe I missed it).
The question is, why are all the musical acts for both Letterman and Leno now relegated to the very end of the show, in the 12:30-12:37 slot? It was never this way in Johnny's day — there were a variety of acts at all times through the show.
Yes, a lot of the acts are bands that the hosts aren't going to sit down and talk to, so maybe it makes sense to have them at the end, but last night Letterman had Dolly Parton on, and talked to her early in the show, but then had her come back at the very end (after he had talked to a different guest in the meantime) to perform her song.
You'd almost think there was some rule that they could pay the musicians less if they don't come on until after 12:30!
It makes me wonder what will happen with Jay's show when he's on at 10:00. I can't image him waiting until 10:55 to put on a musical guest, unless they think somehow that will be a good lead-in to the news on the local stations!
Anyway, if you have any inside scoop on why they do this, I'd love to read about it in your blog.
It's not all that mysterious. Research, including the kind where they measure the ratings many times within the hour, has yielded the following belief: That when the musical guest starts performing, a large chunk of the audience decides to either go to bed or switch channels and see what else is on, mainly the former. There apparently is a chunk of viewers out there who will tune in for the musical guest…so you book one most nights to get those viewers. But there's also a sizeable chunk who'll decide it's time to turn in…so you book them at the end of the show.
This has been "learned" over the years. In fact, back when some at NBC wanted to dump Leno, one of the arguments advanced was that Jay and his crew hadn't heeded network research that proved this principle. One night, he had Garth Brooks perform in the middle of the show, and this was cited as not knowing how to program a talk show. Nowadays, when Brooks does the show, he talks first and — as was the case with Ms. Parton — comes back later to perform.
I doubt this will be the format when Leno hits 10:00. What I'm hearing is that they plan a show that will be mostly comedy, especially at the end. With an 11:30 show, you don't waste your strong comedy bits near the closing because your audience is inevitably going to be smaller then. But that rule doesn't apply to a 10:00 show so Jay will probably try to close strong, and whatever music they have will come earlier in the proceedings.
That, by the way, may be key to whether the Leno experiment will be judged a success. Traditionally, of course, the measure of a prime time show is how its ratings are in relation to the programs on opposite. That will matter for Jay, natch, but because the programming concept is so new and potentially dangerous for the 11:00 local newscasts across the country, he really needs to deliver audience to them. If the ratings for those shows go up, Jay's show may be judged a hit even if it never wins its own time slot.