From Al Billingsley…
Like you, I am dismayed that Craig Ferguson is leaving late night. On his show last night, he emphasized the point that it was his own decision and basically said that anyone who said otherwise was a liar. Do you think this is so? Also, don't you think Neil Patrick Harris is too big a star for a 12:35 show?
I have no reason to believe Ferguson didn't decide of his own accord to exit the time slot. I also have no reason to believe that if he didn't, CBS would have kept him there indefinitely. Among the reasons one might decide to quit a job is that you believe your employer is losing interest in keeping you around.
Craig Ferguson is actually an enormous success story in late night. His show has always been hampered by a number of factors including its incredibly low budget compared to whoever was then on NBC and a weak lead-in from Letterman. The last fifteen minutes of Dave's show, viewership plunges. When you read that Letterman got a 2.2 rating, that doesn't mean that many viewers stuck around until the end of the program. (During the period when Letterman was clobbering Leno in the ratings, Jay sometimes won the first fifteen minutes, then lost so much of his audience that Dave won the hour. Jay's ascent over Dave was essentially a matter of reversing that so that more of those who tuned in to watch his monologue stayed around to watch what came after.)
It is also rumored that Ferguson had this problem, too: That he wasn't allowed to book as many Big Stars as he might have wanted to, lest he take away from the guy who preceded him and owned his show. Still with all that, he's managed some pretty good numbers. Given its low cost, his show may still be the most profitable in its time slot…but the days when it looked like he might dominate that time slot seem to have passed. If I were in his position, I'd start thinking about what I wanted to do next.
Unlike a lot of folks who do talk shows, he has many options. There haven't been a lot of people who've gone from having a successful talk show to doing anything else in show business. This is a topic that fans of Mr. Letterman have been discussing. Dave has never shown the slightest interest in doing anything besides that program. Ferguson, however, has options. The guy can act, he can write, he composes music, he's hosting a new game show, he's a published author, etc. I can sure imagine him starring in movies or a prime-time series of some sort. Until the right thing comes along, he can just tour with his stand-up act. Dave didn't even want to do his stand-up act back when he was doing his stand-up act.
So yeah, if I were him, I'd be thinking it was time to do something else. And I think he based that decision in part on hints, subtle or otherwise, that CBS was thinking it might be a good idea to try a different person at 12:35. It's always better to quit than to be fired.
As for Neil Patrick Harris…CBS has knocked down rumors that they were talking with Chelsea Handler about replacing Dave or Craig but there have been no denials about discussions or even offers to John Oliver or N.P.H. for 12:35. I don't know if Oliver's HBO show takes him out of the running for that. (I also find it a little hard to buy that they'd turn their whole late night schedule into a Daily Show alumni meeting with a Colbert/Oliver parlay but odder things have happened.) Harris is quite vocal on Twitter and hasn't tweeted (yet) that he isn't interested in the gig. If there was no chance of him going there, I would think he'd knock down that possibility now so as to not look like he lost out to someone else.
Hey, here's an interesting thought that occurred to me. Everyone's assuming Colbert, since he now lives and works in New York, will do his Late Show from there, probably from the Ed Sullivan Theater. What if he's looking at Hollywood? And what if they then put Neil Patrick Harris into that theater in the heart of Broadway? That sure feels like a natural fit. It would be tricky because apparently the new 12:35 host will be going on before Letterman vacates but they could find somewhere else to do The Late, Late Show with Neil Patrick Harris for a few months until Dave's ready to let him have that stage.
Oops, sorry. That's taking the speculation way too far. Harris may not be the one. CBS might have their sights set on someone cheaper — or female or non-white. 12:35 is traditionally the time to build a new star, not take on someone who's already about as famous as he's going to get…so I won't wager on anyone in particular. What I will bet on is that whoever it is, they won't have all the restrictions (budgetary, no band, few Big Guests) that Craig Ferguson had to work around. And it sure won't surprise me if the person who replaces him doesn't do any better in the ratings.