You can find polls that show Kamala/Walz ahead of Trump/Vance by 2-3 points with a margin of error of 2-3 points. You can find polls that show a closer race. You can even find right-wing polls (like Rasmussen) that will show the right-wing candidate(s) ahead by serious margins…and they'll continue to do that until a few days before the actual election when they'll start acting like real polls so they won't be way off. Polls are never proven wrong until Election Day. A poll today can say that the write-in ticket of you and I — me at the top of the ticket, of course — will sweep the election. They won't be provably wrong unless they keep saying that until there are actual results.
I think it's always safer to assume that your candidate or ticket is even or perhaps a little behind. If you think they're too far ahead, you may get complacent and not do everything you need to win. If you think they're too far behind, you may figure the cause is lost and not bother doing everything you need to win.
My confidence that Trump will lose is not really poll-based. It's based on watching him do things like his recent visit to Arlington National Cemetery…
"Participants in the August 26th ceremony and the subsequent Section 60 visit were made aware of federal laws, Army regulations and DoD policies, which clearly prohibit political activities on cemetery grounds. An ANC employee who attempted to ensure adherence to these rules was abruptly pushed aside," the Army spokesperson said in the statement on Thursday. Section 60 is an area in the cemetery largely reserved for the graves of those who served in Iraq and Afghanistan.
And it wasn't just that Trump and his Public Relations goons came in with that "The rules never apply to us" attitude that they always have. It's the photo of him standing among the graves of fallen soldiers, grinning and giving "thumbs up" like he just won the lottery. He does one of these clueless attention-getting stunts almost every day and I think they're costing him support. And will continue to do so.