My confidence that Harris/Walz will prevail in the election stands at about 85% and it's not based wholly on the polls. They're still a bit too close, bouncing around their margins of error as they do. My optimism has a lot to do with the way once-President/never-again Trump is acting, coming across more and more like an uncle at a Bar Mitzvah who's had way too much Manischewitz and has no idea what he's supposed to be saying.
You see him belittling military veterans and you have to wonder why. There are no votes in doing that but many to be lost.
Based on clips from the last few days, the outstanding issues in this election for his team seem to be that he's so much better looking than Kamala, his crowd turn-outs are bigger no matter what the news footage might indicate and that once in her life, at a moment of great stress, she consumed an entire bag of Doritos. That's just about all they've got. They'll come up with something else but right now, that's about all they've got.
Here's Kate Zernike with a look at the role that Abortion Politics could be playing in this country. I think it'll turn out a lot more voters who want Harris in office than want Trump there.