Everyone has their own theories about why Trump/Vance is down and Harris/Walz is up. Mine is that when it was Trump v. Biden, most of America didn't want either guy but Trump was doing a more efficient job of making people scared of a Biden second term than Biden was of spreading fear about another four years of Trump. Then suddenly, we don't have to vote for one of those men.
I also don't think Trump is down quite as much as the media — including the pro-Trump media — is acting. But he's acting like he's plunging to his doom and that makes everyone feel it's worse than maybe the numbers make it out to be. Then again, the numbers are not good.
If you want to track this every day — and I'm not suggesting that's a healthy thing to do — keep your eye on…
- Charlie Cook's website, especially this page
- Nate Silver's website, especially this page
- 538.com
- and 270 to Win
None of these are infallible and since they exchange data, the fact that they all agree may not be an indication of anything more than all of them agreeing..if you know what I mean. I also think we have a number of game-changing events ahead of us including but not limited to the disposition of some Trump trials, the outcome of whatever debates occur and one or more huge "Hail Mary" tricks that Trump will try out of sheer desperation.
Also, keep your eyes on dates. I just read a piece on Nate Silver's site that said in its description line, "…the odds are in the ex-president's favor" and I let out a big "HUH?" until I realized it was from June 26, 2024. That was like a hundred years ago.