Wanna know where I think the election currently stands? Here's my answer — which is probably good until the polls close on November 5: It's gonna be up and down, up and down, up and down…with many moments which will, at least at first, feel like game-changers.
We've already had plenty of these. Trump getting shot at was one. Biden doing so poorly in the debate was one. Biden dropping out was a big one. Trump getting convicted of 34 felonies was one. The big Supreme Court ruling was one. There will be more. If Trump feels he's going down, he might generate a half-dozen of 'em. I think it's a roller coaster election and that may not stop on November Fifth. If Harris and Whoever win that day, Trump will probably start a campaign to try and get Vice-President Kamala Harris to not certify the election for President Kamala Harris.
I believe Trump will lose but we've got a long way to go before that happens.
If you want an answer less generic than mine, go read Josh Marshall. I think he has a very realistic assessment of where things stand at this moment.