G. Elliott Morris, who's in the business of analyzing polls, explains why it's way too early to tell. Your guy is not necessarily doomed and his opponent doesn't necessarily have the race in the bag…or vice-versa. Not today. Not 236 days before the election.
Above and beyond the fact that there's plenty o' time for voters to change their minds or merely learn a lot more about who and what they'll be voting for, there are also countless things that could happen that would shake up the race. How much cognitive decline will each candidate demonstrate? What new scandals or indictments will appear out of thin air? What really, really stupid statement will one candidate say? Which way will the economy go and who'll get the blame or credit?
Just too many variables.