A strike by SAG-AFTRA, otherwise known as "The Actors," looks pretty close to inevitable at this point. The precise date may be moved by a day or three but all indications are that it's gonna happen and that the main issue will be Artificial Intelligence, otherwise known as "A.I." And it may be a long one. In the past, the AMPTP, otherwise known as "The Producers," has had some success with their divide/conquer strategy.
They give some faction within a Guild (writers' or actors') what they want and then that faction is ready, perhaps even eager to take the deal and go back to work. Like they give sitcom writers something they crave and the sitcom writers want to end the strike even though the folks who write features or variety shows or daytime dramas or something else still have unaddressed demands. This time though we have A.I. — an issue which seems to matter enormously to writers and actors in all genres, of all ages, of all genders, of all income levels, etc. It matters to Tom Cruise and it also matters to the supporting player who hasn't worked since Love American Style was canceled.
So brace yourself. And here is the best bit of advice I can give to anyone who is affected by the strikes: Don't believe rumors. In fact, that is so important that I will type it again, this time in all caps and boldface: DON'T BELIEVE RUMORS.
This is sometimes tough to do because rumors tend to fill voids of information. Negotiations and the inner works of labor disputes require a lot of closed doors and secrecy and neither side showing all its cards, even to the folks they represent or talking to the press at certain junctures. When you have situations where you don't know anything, it is too easy to fall for something that kinda looks like information even when you have no idea of its source. This leads me to another point that is so important it warrants not only all caps and boldface but even underlining: FALSE INFORMATION IS WORSE THAN NOT KNOWING ANYTHING!
This is so easy to forget. Let's say you are walking around lost and you run into me and you ask me how to get to the place you wish to be. Let us say that I have no idea, which is often the case when questions are put to me. The responsible thing for me to say is, "I'm sorry, I don't know." The irresponsible is if I say, "I think you go south for five blocks to Melrose, turn left and then drive six miles to Sepulveda, hang a right and it should be on your left in a quarter-mile or so!"
That happens. People do that, passing off as facts speculation or hunches or some story that someone heard from someone who heard it from someone who heard it from someone who heard it from someone who heard it from someone (etc.). This is dangerous. It's like if your doctor has no idea what's causing your stomach pains but he doesn't want to admit that so he takes out your gall bladder.
Recently, I had a debate — maybe you'd call it an argument — with someone on a comic book forum who was quoting past sales figures that I knew to be bogus…or at least, probably bogus. I e-mailed to tell him the numbers he was citing were almost certainly not real. He wrote back, "Maybe so but they're the only numbers we have."
In other words: False information is better than no information. Except, of course, we know it isn't. In a situation like a labor strike, it's tough enough to know what to do when you have absolutely accurate info. If you factor in false information, you are almost certain to reach false conclusions. Yeah, once in a while it turns out that removing your gall bladder does stop the stomach pains but that's not the way such decisions should be made.
And there are a few other points I should make. One of them I wrote about here before and I'm just gonna cut-'n'-paste from that. Back during the '88 Writers Guild strike — actually, during all the many Writers Guild strikes through which I've lived — I kept finding myself in this conversation with some writer who was sure he had the key to victory…
HIM: We have to be tough.
ME: Okay, fine. We'll be tough. What are you suggesting we do?
HIM: I just told you. Be tough. Let them know we won't give in. They're tough. We have to be tougher.
ME: I get that. How would you suggest we express this toughness? What should we do that we aren't doing yet?
HIM: Win. Get in there and fight and battle and be tough. They'll give in, trust me. All we have to do is be tough.
I could never get any of these tough-minded people to suggest an action on our part…or if they did, it was something we were already doing. I guess it made them feel vital and powerful to think they'd actually come up with a solution. There's a saying that "hope is not a plan." Well, neither is an attitude.
A close relative of that approach is something else I wrote about, in this case here. This is the kind of conversation I often heard during Writers Guild strikes. "HIM" is a complaining member of the Guild. "ME" is not really me but it might be someone on the Guild's Negotiating Committee…
HIM: Our committee should get in there and negotiate!
ME: The producers refuse to negotiate.
HIM: Then we should insist they negotiate.
ME: The producers refuse to negotiate.
HIM: Then we should get in there and be real tough and demand they negotiate.
ME: The only weapon we have against them is to strike.
HIM: Don't strike! Negotiate! Demand they negotiate! If I were on that committee, I could force them to negotiate!
ME: How would you do that?
HIM: By being tougher than they are!
And lastly, I'll give you one more piece of take-this-for-what-it's-worth advice. Every actor or writer has an agent and/or a lawyer and/or someone they rely on to make deals. When there's a strike, almost every one of these counselors will tell their clients something like "The trouble is you have bad people representing you. They don't know what to do. Why, if I were representing your guild in this, I would long since have gotten you every single thing you guys want including having Jeff Bezos personally come to your homes and clean all the leaves out of your rain gutters!"
That's the easiest thing in the world to say and I dunno…maybe not the easiest thing to actually do. He or she might be right that the folks negotiating on your behalf are not good at it…or not as good as the folks negotiating on behalf of The Producers. They're almost certainly not as experienced at the game. Still, I have a lot of trust in the Writers Guild representatives.
I have no opinion of the SAG-AFTRA reps at the bargaining table but they should not be confused with Fran Drescher, who as SAG-AFTRA President, will be the spokesperson and "face" of the union during a war. She has not yet shown her members that she understands the responsibilities that come with the title and I sure hope she masters them in a hurry — like by later this evening.