I've gotten this question a lot in the last week: Will the Writers Guild go on strike when its contract expires on May 1? Here's the best answer I can give you at this time…
A strike has long seemed probable. It became a tad less probable when the membership voted 97.85% to authorize the union leadership to call a strike. That is an amazingly high number when you consider that that voting membership includes a lot of producers, directors, performers and other folks who may view their writing work as of secondary (or lower) importance.
The high figure is important because the studios with which we negotiate need to assess the Guild's resolve and ask themselves how many members will say no to a lowball deal. How many are willing to walk picket lines and do without income for an unknown period to secure a better deal? 97.85% indicates a lot of resolve and strength.
Still, a strike seems probable but it doesn't have to happen on May 1. If the two sides are making meaningful progress towards a deal, it is possible to delay a walkout. You call a strike when you're at an impasse.
I am hearing nothing from inside the negotiations. That is not always a bad sign but the stakes are very high and we're dealing with the kinds of issues where a gain for writers can and will naturally lead to gains for directors, actors and folks in certain other categories.
If I had to bet, I'd bet there will be a strike. How long will it be? That will depend on when the studios get their act together and offer us better terms. The longer strikes are usually a result of those studios, which have a rule of unanimity struggling to become unanimous on a better proposal. These two want to play hardball… those three want to settle…one insists on holding out for something that the other studios don't care much about…and so forth. The 1988 strike lasted 153 days and most of those 153 days were spent waiting for the studios to agree among themselves on what to offer us.
That's all I can tell you right now. If you hear anything, let me know.
