I don't think there are very many people presently involved in television and film production who would bet there won't be a long and nasty strike by the Writers Guild in the near future. By May 1, we need to either have a new contract in place or be so clearly on the way to one that the WGA won't call a strike. I am about to vote to empower my guild to call one if necessary and so are a lot of other WGA members.
I've been a member since 1976 and I don't know how many of these I've lived through. We always seem to be recovering from the last negotiation, whether it required a labor stoppage or not, and girding ourselves for the next one. I don't like it. No one likes it. But one thing you learn after you've been through a number of these is that (a) from time to time, we have to sit down with the producers and hammer out a new contract and (b) if you take a shitty deal this time, you'll be offered a far shittier one next time.
In past negotiations, I had an inside track to what was going on in the bargaining. This time, I don't know anyone in those conference rooms so anyone who comes to this site looking for insight may not find much. Still, let me say this: I have great faith that both sides know what they're doing…and it's not like the scenario is a new one.
When I did have access, my observation was that a strike was the result of the producers woefully underestimating the resolve of the WGA, making an offer that they wrongly thought we'd take, and then having trouble budging off that offer. I hope that is not the case this time.
The issues are many and complex but most come down to they want to pay us less and we want to be paid more. That's what most strikes in most industries are about and it's not an alien concept. Every time anyone makes a deal of any magnitude in any business, it usually comes down to they want to pay us less and we want to be paid more. It just doesn't usually happen all at once in Hollywood for everyone and on such a huge, production-stopping scale.
Here's hoping production doesn't have to stop and a good deal can be reached. And if we do get a bad deal, watch the hell out for next time.