Jeremy Stahl makes the argument that Donald Trump will not be the Republican candidate in the next election. And what he says would be a very strong, convincing argument if it was about anyone except Donald Trump…a man who rarely does the logical/sane thing. An awful lot of past rules of political conduct do not seem to apply to Trump. His followers are willing to forgive deeds and words that would send them fleeing from some other candidate.
If you forced me to wager, I'd bet Stahl is right but I think it's way too soon to place a bet on this one. Since Trump got involved in national politics, things have become stunningly unpredictable. Something could well happen tomorrow which no one could have imagined today. With all the different investigations and leakers and former aides turning against the guy, every day feels like "Anything Can Happen Day," which was a weekly feature of the old Mickey Mouse Club show. In fact, I think one of the strongest arguments for Republicans to not re-nominate the guy is that they can't possibly know what scathing detail revelation or conviction was in his future.
One of the reasons a lot of Republicans deserted Richard Nixon during Watergate was the steady drip-drip-drip of damning disclosures from the investigations and especially those presidential tapes. So many of them were afraid to support him wholeheartedly today for fear of what would come out tomorrow.