An old e-mail pal of mine, Mark Bernstein, sent me this…
Here's my theory, based on my own experience. Watching the Oscar telecast used to be a must-do for me, but I didn't watch this year. Part of the appeal was being among the first to know who won. I don't need to watch the show for that any more – I can just look it up online, even checking in a couple of times during the evening to see winners lists updated in real time.
For hosts, Jon Stewart was a draw for me, as were Johnny Carson and Bob Hope in years past. Neil Patrick Harris was also appealing, but a much bigger draw for the Tonys (which, admittedly, I watch every year no matter what). But you're right, the host alone doesn't matter much.
I'm also less invested because I go out to movies less often these days, and so haven't seen, well, just about anything. The closest I came to seeing any major nominee was screenplay nominee Knives Out. This year, even the categories I normally have covered were more obscure to me, as I'd only seen three of the Animated Feature nominees and two of the Visual Effects nominees. I find I can be perfectly content waiting a few months to a year and watching most movies at home on my 65" screen.
For those reasons, I'm guessing the ratings will continue to decline.
I think you're right, Mark, but I'll add on that I think one of the reasons we used to watch the Oscars was that it was a live show and there was the very real chance that something unplanned would happen.
Someone would streak, someone would cuss, someone would fall on their ass, someone would have an emotional breakdown, someone would stage a political protest…something unexpected and you didn't want to miss it. I also think that when Saturday Night Live started up, it had a real sense of danger about it and you didn't want to not be watching the night someone said the F-word or flashed some naked body part or the set fell over.
We don't worry these days about missing a live moment. If someone on the Oscars mooned the camera, there would be ninety clips of it on YouTube within twenty minutes. Matter of fact, a perfectly fine way to watch the Academy Awards — in many ways far better than sitting through a three-hours-and-twenty-minutes show — is just to watch highlights online.
That may be Reason Numero Uno that the ratings ain't what they used to be; that and the fact that so many nominations are for movies we didn't see. Somewhere out there, there are folks whose job it is to boost those ratings and it must be frustrating to them that they can't control what gets nominated and who wins.
But I think television really changed when most of us got VCRs and gained the ability to tape a show, watch it when we wanted to (or over and over) and to fast-forward through the dull parts. And it changed a lot more when enough of it became available the next day on the Internet.