Donald Trump's job approval is down to 37.9% against a disapproval rating of 56.2%. I'm going to guess he won't get much below 30% until one or both of two things happen…
One is that he will look like enough of a train wreck that Republicans in Congress start turning on him and distancing themselves. I kinda disagree with the premise that Trump could start confessing to murders and guys like Paul Ryan would still support him. I think right now, Trump isn't unpopular enough for that. Ryan still has to deal with him, still wants Trump to support and sign legislation that's on the Ryan wish list. But if the early exit of Trump were to start looking inevitable — which it doesn't at this time — I think Ryan would be perfectly happy and probably even happier with President Pence. In which case, Ryan would join those shoving Donald out of the Oval Office, A.S.A.P.
Secondly, I think Trump's supporters need a new champion. They're not going to abandon their man until they have somewhere else to go. As the old saying goes, you can't beat something with nothing. Nothing will cause the Trump lovers to switch their love to nobody. But they might switch it to someone who promised them all the things they think Trump will do for them, actually do them, and do them without all the embarrassing statements and lies which they have to ignore or rationalize.
Tomorrow, Trump's popularity will probably take another hit as James Comey testifies. Ben Mathis-Lilley explains what it's about.